阿拉弗拉海热带低压33U(32P)

ygsj24

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1328 UTC 11/05/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 33U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 8.8S
Longitude: 138.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (225 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (1 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/1800:  8.5S 137.6E:     030 (060):  035  (065): 1000
+12:  12/0000:  8.2S 137.2E:     045 (080):  035  (065): 1000
+18:  12/0600:  8.1S 136.7E:     055 (105):  030  (055): 1001
+24:  12/1200:  7.9S 136.1E:     060 (115):  030  (055): 1001
+36:  13/0000:  7.7S 134.9E:     070 (130):  025  (045): 1003
+48:  13/1200:  7.4S 133.7E:     080 (150):  020  (035): 1005
+60:  14/0000:  7.0S 132.3E:     095 (175):  020  (035): 1006
+72:  14/1200:  6.2S 130.9E:     115 (210):  020  (035): 1006
+96:  15/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 16/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 33U remains near land to the southwest of Papua New Guinea. The
deep convective cloud remains displaced to the south of the low level centre,
despite the current low deep layer shear. Position based on a 1202 UTC ASCAT-B
pass, with good confidence.

Dvorak DT of 3.0 is based on a shear pattern with the centre less than half a
degree from the edge of the deep convection. MET is 2.0 based on a 24-hour S
trend with PAT adjusted to 2.5. FT and CI are 2.5. Intensity maintained at 35
knots based on the 1202 UTC ASCAT pass. Gales are analysed to the southeast of
the system only, although with 30 knots winds also extending into the southwest
and northeast quadrants. Objective guidance (1-min mean and at 1200 UTC unless
otherwise stated): ADT 41 kts, AiDT 35 kts, DPRINT 39 kts, DMINT 34 kts (0839
UTC), SATCON not available.

The environment remains favourable for development on Sunday night and Monday
morning, with ample atmospheric moisture, warm waters and an upper trough to
the southwest assisting with outflow to the south, while the centre of the
system remains under low CIMSS analysed deep layer shear. These favourable
conditions are offset by proximity to the land mass of Papua New Guinea, which
will be the main inhibitor to development over the next 12 to 18 hours. The
analysed upper divergence also remains reasonably weak, and displaced to the
south of 33U. A steady state intensity is forecast in the short term with
intermittent gales persisting to the south of the centre. Beyond that,
northerly wind shear from an amplifying upper trough to the southwest will
cause conditions to become more unfavourable, and weakening is forecast from 00
UTC Monday.

Recent motion has been towards the west northwest. As the shear increases on
Monday, there is broad consensus amongst forecast models that 33U will become a
shallower system and move more rapidly to the northwest due to the persistent
low level south easterly trade flow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC.

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

yhh

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 138.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 138.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 9.3S 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 9.2S 137.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 9.0S 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 138.4E.
11MAY25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
487 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 111500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO)
   
4. WARNING NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.3S 138.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32P, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING
    
19. AND PERSISTING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
    
21. CONVECTION, DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    
22. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH
    
23. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-11 KTS), WARM SEA
    
24. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO
    
25. THE SOUTH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT THROUGH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
    
26. INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON EIR
    
27. IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A 111204Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
    
28. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON
    
29. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, AS WELL
    
30. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KT WIND BARBS THROUGHOUT
    
31. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO
    
36. SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
41.    ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 111130Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 111130Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 110839Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 111230Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
49.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 32P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD
    
63. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    
64. SOUTHEAST, AS WELL AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
    
65. TRADE FLOW. AS THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
    
66. HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND TRACK
    
67. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TC
    
68. 32P IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 18
    
69. HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
    
70. SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
    
71. SOUTH WILL MOVE AWAY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL
    
72. DIVERGENCE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
    
73. SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE TC, LEADING TO
    
74. FURTHER WEAKENING. DISSIPATION OF TC 32P IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
    
77. PROJECTED TRACK, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF UP TO 25 NM. HOWEVER,
    
78. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TRANSLATION SPEED, AS WELL AS
    
79. THE TIMELINE OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AS EVIDENCED BY A 70 NM ALONG-
    
80. TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
81. CONFIDENCE AND LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS, AS THE ALONG-
    
82. TRACK SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. JTWC
    
83. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY
    
84. FAIR ALIGNMENT AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
    
85. SUCH AS GFS, HAFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC PREDICT A STEADY WEAKENING AND
    
86. DISSIPATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS, STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
    
87. SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MAINTAIN WARNING-LEVEL INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
    
88. THE FORECAST PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION SOON AFTER. MOST ECENS
    
89. AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE WEAKENING BEGINNING WITHIN THE
    
90. NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
91. 
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
96. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 111451
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (SE OF KLADAR)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 9.37S
D. 138.80E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST
GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MUSE

红豆棒冰冰

今晚ASCAT风场扫描显示中心东南侧有成片35kt风旗

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 111748
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (SE OF KLADAR)
B. 11/1730Z
C. 9.33S
D. 138.50E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD修改12Z分析，18Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TXPS27 KNES 111852
TCSWSP
CCA
A.  32P (NONAME)
B.  11/1130Z
C.  9.0S
D.  137.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR CENTER LOCATION BASED ON MULTIPLE MW IMAGES
IMPLYING THE CENTER WAS FURTHER WEST. THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. THE MET IS 2.0
BASED ON ANORMALLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET. THE NEW CENTER
POSITION LIES JUST OUTSIDE THE PREVIOUSLY USED BAND.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...HOSLEY

TXPS27 KNES 111858
TCSWSP
A.  32P (NONAME)
B.  11/1730Z
C.  8.6S
D.  137.4E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS
1.0 BASED ON A SLOWLY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...HOSLEY

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 111856
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1856 UTC 11/05/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 33U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 8.6S
LONGITUDE: 137.9E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST NORTHWEST (289 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 3 KNOTS (6 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  12/0000:  8.5S 137.4E:     040 (080):  035  (065): 1000
+12:  12/0600:  8.5S 136.9E:     050 (095):  030  (055): 1001
+18:  12/1200:  8.4S 136.3E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1001
+24:  12/1800:  8.3S 135.8E:     065 (120):  025  (045): 1003
+36:  13/0600:  8.0S 134.7E:     080 (150):  025  (045): 1003
+48:  13/1800:  7.6S 133.5E:     095 (180):  020  (035): 1006
+60:  14/0600:  6.9S 132.3E:     105 (195):  020  (035): 1006
+72:  14/1800:  6.0S 131.2E:     105 (195):  020  (035): 1006
+96:  15/1800:             :              :            :
+120: 16/1800:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 33U HAS STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST, AND IS LOCATED
NEAR THE ISLAND OF DOLOK. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE, DESPITE THE CURRENT LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATED MOTION FROM A 1202 UTC ASCAT-B PASS, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DVORAK DT OF 2.5 IS BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTRE AROUND HALF A
DEGREE FROM THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MET/PAT IS 2.0 BASED ON A 24-HOUR
S TREND . FT IS 2.0, WITH CI HELD AT 2.5 DURING WEAKENING. INTENSITY MAINTAINED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE 1202 UTC ASCAT PASS, WITH GALES ANALYSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM ONLY. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MIN MEAN AND AT 1800 UTC
UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED): ADT 51 KTS, AIDT 39 KTS, DPRINT 32 KTS, DMINT 33 KTS
(1328 UTC), SATCON NOT AVAILABLE.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE, WARM WATERS AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSISTING WITH
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH, WHILE THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER LOW CIMSS
ANALYSED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THESE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS ARE OFFSET BY PROXIMITY
TO THE ISLAND OF DOLOK, JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW GUINEA, WHICH WILL BE THE
MAIN INHIBITOR TO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE ANALYSED UPPER
DIVERGENCE ALSO REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 33U. A STEADY STATE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH INTERMITTENT GALES PERSISTING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BEYOND THAT, NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR FROM AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
BECOME MORE UNFAVOURABLE, AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 00 UTC MONDAY.

RECENT MOTION HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES ON
MONDAY, THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS AMONGST FORECAST MODELS THAT 33U WILL BECOME A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND MOVE MORE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTH EASTERLY TRADE FLOW.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 12/0130 UTC.=

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 9.0S 137.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S 137.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 9.0S 137.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 8.8S 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 137.7E.
11MAY25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
463 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 112100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.0S 137.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 463 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 32P WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
    
19. SLOWLY SEPARATING FROM THE BULK OF CONVECTION. THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
    
20. IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, SHOWING THE
    
21. MAJOR TILT IN THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ANALYZED
    
22. TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SOUTH OF DOLOK
    
23. ISLAND WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS STATIONARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
    
24. SOUTHEAST. GALES ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
    
25. OF THE SYSTEM, CLOSER TO WHERE THE CONVECTION IS AT. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
26. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 32P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
27. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
    
28. KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
    
29. TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. THE
    
30. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
31. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
32. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE 111204Z METOP-C
    
33. ASCAT DATA, AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
34. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 111204Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
39. POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
43.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
44.    ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 111730Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 111730Z
    
47.    CIMSS DPRINT: 32 KTS AT 111800Z
    
48.    CIMSS DMINT: 28 KTS AT 111622Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SIGNIFICANT VORTEX TILT.
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 32P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
67. WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
    
68. THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY
    
69. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
    
70. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, NORTHERLY VERTICAL
    
71. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KTS.
    
72. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL WORSEN OVER
    
73. THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS
    
74. FOR THE WEAKENING OF THE VORTEX. AS A RESULT, DISSIPATION IS
    
75. FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
78. AGREEMENT WITH A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 AND MINIMAL
    
79. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
80. CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
81. IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MAINTAINING
    
82. INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE GFS AND HAFS-A BOTH SUGGEST
    
83. WEAKENING STARTING AT TAU 0. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
84. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
    
85. 
    
86. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
87.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
88.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
89. NNNN

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