MEDIUM - 印度以西AS 01(93A) - 16.8N 73.3E

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0

TPIO10 PGTW 230256 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 23/0231Z
C. 17.48N
D. 72.67E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0.
MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT
BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. COR FOR REMARKS
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   SWANSON

Dfmkrosa

对这种近陆地+five用t based on dt也是神人了。还好老j没因为这个2.0给出高强度，毕竟ascat在这里摆着。

fy6

JTWC 06Z、SSD 06Z 均维持T2.0

TPIO10 PGTW 230549 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)
B. 23/0530Z
C. 17.13N
D. 72.27E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0.
MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT
BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   SWANSON

TXIO22 KNES 230555
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  23/0530Z
C.  17.2N
D.  72.6E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT
BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

fy6

ASCAT 风场扫描 05/23 0343Z
非常偏

SCAT 风场扫描 05/23 0116Z

fy6

动态卫星云图

Dfmkrosa

C星和B星在这个位置还算错开，所以C星就基本扫到了。
只不过这个结构只能说：
哈！
过分上陆很明显破坏了这个扰动进一步发展的机会，可能终其一生也就是一个25kt 1000mb左右的普通扰动了。仍然无法冲击北半球今年的首旋

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午ASCAT风场扫描（CyclonicWx版本）

红豆棒冰冰

IMD 03Z已经认定WML

The low-pressure area over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off south Konkan-Goa coasts lay as a well-
marked low-pressure area over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off south Konkan coast at 0000 UTC and
persisted over same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 23rd May 2025. It is likely to move nearly
northwards and intensify further into a depression during next 24 hours.
Vortex over east-central Arabian Sea off south Konkan coast & neighbourhood centered within half
a degree of 17.2N/72.5E with intensity T1.0. Associated scattered to broken low and medium
clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over eastcentral Arabian Sea & Konkan
adjoining Madhya Maharashtra, Goa. Minimum cloud top temperature -60℃ to -80℃.
Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay
over south & central Arabian Sea. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to
intense convection lay over Lakshadweep Islands, north Maldives & Comorin area.

The low-pressure area over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off south Konkan-Goa coasts
became a Well-marked low-pressure area over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off south
Konkan coast at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 23rd May 2025. It persisted over the same
region at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 23rd May 2025. It is likely to move nearly northwards
and intensify further into a depression during next 24 hours.