小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

Momo240309

TPPN10 PGTW 221448

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (N OF GUAM)

B. 22/1430Z

C. 23.22N

D. 145.61E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0858Z 22.60N 146.37E SSMS


MUSE

联合台风警报中心于世界协调时22日14时48分发布台风发展报文
A. 分析对象：TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (N OF GUAM)
...
F. 德法结论：FT 2.0, CI 2.0, 24小时趋势 增强(1.0), 3小时短期趋势 维持(0.0)
...
H. 备注：47A/定位基于部分暴露的低层环流中心/动画。在冷云盖下观测到的圆形云线得出数据T数为2.0。模型预期T数与模式T数一致。结论基于数据T数。
...（来自ZCZCNNNN网）

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-22 22:20
稍早前MetOp-C风场扫描显示中心东北侧有成片30-35kt风旗

今天晚间MetOp-B风场只扫到外围

Enceladus

夜间红外卫星云图动画

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z预报北上登陆/擦过本州岛东南部，巅峰约1002百帕

红豆棒冰冰

HWRF 12Z预报北上登陆本州岛，巅峰约996百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析DT1 MET1 PT1.5 FT1.5 CI1.5，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        6
featureDirectionOfMotion:        336 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        3.6 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        2
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        4
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        2
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        3
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        2

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.0，SSD分析升至T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 221804
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (N OF GUAM)
B. 22/1730Z
C. 23.58N
D. 145.40E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
AND PT YIELD 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   SWANSON

TXPQ24 KNES 221827
TCSWNP
A.  02W (NONAME)
B.  22/1730Z
C.  23.7N
D.  145.2E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A LLCC >1.25 DEG FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE
MET EQUALS 1.5 AND THE PT EQUALS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
IRREGULAR/PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

Enceladus

GFS 2212Z Main-run(INVEST 95W)
▸ Range: +96Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximun Expected Intensity: 35KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 222052
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (N OF GUAM)
B. 22/2030Z
C. 24.05N
D. 145.00E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   SWANSON