2502号热带气旋“圣帕”(02W.Sepat)机构发报专帖

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 240300
CCAA 24030 99398 11165
SEPAT 02296 11407 12124 225// 93208
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 240300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS SEPAT 2502 (2502) INITIAL TIME 240300 UTC
00HR 29.6N 140.7E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 17KM/H
P+12HR 31.2N 139.9E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 32.8N 139.6E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月24日12時45分発表

24日12時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約390km
中心位置        北緯29度40分 (29.7度)
東経140度35分 (140.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25 km/h (13 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 280 km (150 NM)
南西側 110 km (60 NM)

25日00時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約200km
予報円の中心        北緯31度20分 (31.3度)
東経140度00分 (140.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

25日12時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約60km
予報円の中心        北緯32度35分 (32.6度)
東経139度40分 (139.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)

ygsj24

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 240600
CCAA 24060 99398 11165
SEPAT 02299 11404 11213 225// 93207
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 240600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS SEPAT 2502 (2502) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC
00HR 29.9N 140.4E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 31.4N 139.8E 1000HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 32.6N 139.6E 1002HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月24日15時45分発表

24日15時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約340km
中心位置        北緯30度05分 (30.1度)
東経140度25分 (140.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 280 km (150 NM)
南西側 110 km (60 NM)

25日03時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約180km
予報円の中心        北緯31度30分 (31.5度)
東経139度35分 (139.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

25日15時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の西南西約60km
予報円の中心        北緯32度55分 (32.9度)
東経139度10分 (139.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        105 km (57 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 240600
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2502 SEPAT (2502)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   TS SEPAT IS LOCATED AT 30.1N, 140.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    
11.   MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    
12.   CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    
13.   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
16.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
    
17.   CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
    
18.   AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
    
19.   SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
21.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
22.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    
23.   BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    
24.   FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
    
25.   SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    
26. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
27.   THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
28.   INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
    
29.   WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
30.   BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
31. =

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ygsj24

No.2 SEPAT KMA | Issued at(KST) : Tue, 24 Jun 2025, 16:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Tue, 24 Jun 2025, 06:00 Analysis	-	1	18	65	1002	30.0	140.4	NW	12	220 [SW 120]		-
Tue, 24 Jun 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	1	18	65	1004	31.6	139.7	NNW	16	200 [SW 100]		50
Wed, 25 Jun 2025, 06:00 Forecast	-	TD	15	54	1008	33.1	139.4	N	14			90

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 30.0N 140.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 140.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 31.3N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 32.9N 139.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 34.5N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 36.3N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 40.7N 147.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 140.2E.
24JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

輕度颱風聖帕
編號第 02 號
國際命名 SEPAT

現況
2025年06月24日14時
中心位置在北緯 29.9 度，東經 140.5 度
過去移動方向 西北
過去移動時速 14公里
中心氣壓 1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 80 公里
　西北側 70 公里 東北側 100 公里
　西南側 70 公里 東南側 70 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 16 公里
預測 06月24日20時
中心位置在北緯 30.6 度，東經 139.9 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 25 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 06月25日02時
中心位置在北緯 31.3 度，東經 139.6 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 50 公里

預測 12 小時內減弱為熱帶性低氣壓

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 11 公里
預測 06月25日08時
中心位置在北緯 31.9 度，東經 139.5 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 70 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 11 公里
預測 06月25日14時
中心位置在北緯 32.5 度，東經 139.4 度
中心氣壓1008百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 10 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 15 公尺
70%機率半徑 90 公里

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.0N 140.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 198 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 02W WITH EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS COMPETING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPOSING
ON TS 02W BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF TS 02W IS HIGHLIGHTED IN 240341Z N-20 ATMS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD BANDING HIGHLIGHTED IN
ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 240318Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 240530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE CROSSED THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER
CROSSING INTO COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN TAU 24-36, AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 30KTS DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 35KTS BY TAU 36 AS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCES. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
THE TRACK SPEED VARIES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
THE TWO PRIMARY OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM AND GALWEM, WHICH REFLECT
TRACKS LYING WEST OF CONSENSUS. THE ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS VARY
SLIGHTLY WITH GFS LYING 100NM BEHIND ECMWF BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A CONSISTENT INTENSITY BETWEEN 30-35TS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 240900
CCAA 24090 99398 11165
SEPAT 02300 11403 11213 225// 93205
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 240900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS SEPAT 2502 (2502) INITIAL TIME 240900 UTC
00HR 30.0N 140.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 31.5N 139.7E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月24日18時50分発表

24日18時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約330km
中心位置        北緯30度10分 (30.2度)
東経140度10分 (140.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 280 km (150 NM)
南西側 110 km (60 NM)

25日06時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約150km
予報円の中心        北緯31度50分 (31.8度)
東経139度30分 (139.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

25日18時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の西約50km
予報円の中心        北緯33度10分 (33.2度)
東経139度20分 (139.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1008 hPa
予報円の半径        105 km (57 NM)