百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

9916-Bart

稍早的Mission#1录得了MSLP约995mb

ygsj24

525
WTNT45 KNHC 150250
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025

Erin has intensified tonight. The first NOAA-P3 reconnaissance
mission into the storm found that the center was a little more
embedded in the deep convection than earlier with a compact wind
field particularly strong on the eastern flank. Tail Doppler Radar
data from the aircraft indicated the center is starting to become
better aligned, though some residual southward tilt with height
still exists, which can also be seen on a 2339 UTC GMI microwave
pass. In the most recent leg, peak 700-mb flight level winds from
the NOAA aircraft were 69 kt in the northeast quadrant. This
value reduces to surface wind near 60 kt, just shy of
hurricane intensity.

Erin is now starting to move west-northwestward at 285/15 kt. An
extensive mid-level ridge stretched from off the eastern United
States coast all the way to the eastern Atlantic remains in place
helping to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for at least
the next 2 to 3 days with it gradually slowing down. During this
time-span, a mid-latitude trough moving into the northwestern
Atlantic is expected to dig equatorward to the northeast of Bermuda,
with another reinforcing shortwave moving into Atlantic Canada
towards the end of the forecast period. These features should create
a weakness in the subtropical ridge that Erin is expected to turn
northwestward and north-northwestward into. The latest track
guidance was quite similar to the prior cycle, just a little faster
than before towards the end of the forecast period, and only small
adjustments were made to the NHC forecast track. This track roughly
splits the latest forecast from the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) and HCCA
consensus aid. Still, there is a healthy amount of spread in the
guidance and uncertainty remains about what impacts Erin may bring
to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda in the long range.

With Erin's core structure improving this evening, the storm appears
poised to intensify more quickly in the short term. Rapid
intensification probabilities have increased in SHIPS guidance, with
now a 38-40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24 h. The
environment continues to become more thermodynamically favorable,
with Erin crossing into 28C and warmer sea-surface temperatures, and
mid-level moisture increasing over the forecast time period. Thus,
the NHC intensity forecast will show more intensification over the
next 48-60 hours, and Erin is now forecast to become a major
hurricane earlier and peak at 115 kt, category 4 intensity. After
that time, there remains evidence in both SHIPS guidance and model
fields that northwesterly vertical wind shear could increase over
the system. In addition, there is a good chance Erin may begin to
undergo inner-core structural changes, like eyewall replacement
cycles, that could broaden its wind field but also cause its
intensity to plateau. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast now shows
some gradual weakening after a peak intensity in 72 h, though the
models show the wind radii expanding quite dramatically in the day
3-5 period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little on the
high side of the guidance, especially in the short-term, but ends up
near the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN towards the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto
Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands.  Tropical storm conditions could also occur in
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend,
and additional watches may be required tonight or on Friday.

3. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.1N  52.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 17.8N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 18.6N  58.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 19.4N  61.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 20.3N  63.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  17/1200Z 21.3N  65.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 22.4N  67.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 25.0N  69.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 28.0N  70.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

114
WTNT35 KNHC 150550
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 53.0W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 53.0 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion
expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few
days and Erin is expected to become a hurricane today and could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning later today and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico.  Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected.  This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the eastern United States coast
by next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘 涛  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 08 月 15 日 18 时
“埃林”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   15日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经53.7度，北纬17.5度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    998百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋背风群岛以东方向约870公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”由9级增强到11级

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向西西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月15日14时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin has struggled to become better organized tonight, as the system
is still trying to establish an inner core. Convection has
diminished over the low-level center in recent hours due to some dry
air entrainment. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating the system this morning and found maximum flight-level
winds of 52 kt. Recent infrared satellite imagery depicts a deep
convective band becoming established in the southern semi-circle
although flight-level aircraft data found little wind within that
band. Objective satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 67
kt. Given the latest recon data and satellite estimates, the
intensity is held at a potentially generous 60 kt. A NOAA P-3
hurricane hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and
hopefully Tail Doppler Radar data will be able to better assess the
structure of the system.

Erin is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/15
kt. A subtropical ridge to the north will continue to steer the
system west-northwestward into the weekend. A weakness in the ridge
is forecast to develop early next week, and this will result in the
system gradually turning northwestward then northward by the end of
the forecast period. The guidance is in fairly good agreement
through about 60-72 hours. After 72 hours, there are some
differences in the forward speed and cross-track spread with the
turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models lie along the
western edge of the guidance envelope with the GFS and Google
DeepMind models remaining on the eastern edge of the guidance. The
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one in the short
term, and was nudged slightly west beyond day 3 closer to some of
the simple consensus aids. There is still uncertainty about what
impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

The storm is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and it
will likely intensify once the inner core becomes more organized.
Sea surface temperatures have warmed to about 28C and should
continue to warm to near 30C along the forecast track, with a slight
decrease in shear expected over the next day or so. Although SHIPS
guidance depicts a slight increase in shear later this weekend, the
upper-level wind pattern becomes a little more favorable with
increasing mid-level RH values. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous with a steady rate of strengthening and lies near the
consensus aids, with Erin forecast to become a hurricane later
today, and a major hurricane late this weekend. Some of the
hurricane regional models and the Florida State Superensemble depict
a higher peak intensity than the current NHC forecast. Regardless of
the details, Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto
Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands.  Tropical storm conditions could also occur in
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend,
and additional watches may be required later today.

3. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and
Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 17.8N  54.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 18.4N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 19.3N  59.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 20.1N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 21.0N  64.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  17/1800Z 22.2N  66.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 23.2N  68.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 25.5N  70.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 28.9N  71.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

菜园子

1

ygsj24

629
WTNT35 KNHC 151156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 55.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days
and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico.  Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next
week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

9916-Bart

严重怀疑右下角的气压和飞行高度着色反了

pocketbox

WTNT45 KNHC 151447
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The
last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the
cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air
Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt
northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery
shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently
received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of
shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery.  Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin
becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north
will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend.
Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a
weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the
forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually
turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains
in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time,
there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track
spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models
again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the
GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although
still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly
since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of
the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening,
although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is
entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure
indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the
first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster
development rate.  After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to
encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should
at least slow development. However, the global and regional
hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a
powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern
Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted
that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC
models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast,
so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than
currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands.  Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4.  Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 18.2N  56.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 18.9N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 19.8N  61.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 20.6N  63.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  17/1200Z 21.6N  66.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  18/0000Z 22.7N  67.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  18/1200Z 23.8N  69.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  19/1200Z 26.5N  70.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 30.3N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

菜园子

1