东太平洋四级飓风“基科”(11E.Kiko) - 环流小巧，西行发展 - NHC:125KT

ygsj24

906
WTPZ41 KNHC 060237
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

Kiko has continued to intensify this afternoon and remains a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The
eye is now surrounded by a large ring of very cold cloud tops, and
the cyclone has taken on a structure more typical of annular
hurricanes. A GMI microwave pass from 2224 UTC confirmed a symmetric
inner-core with a complete ring of deep convection around the eye.
The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are as high as 122 kt.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB are both
T6.0/115 kt. Blending the higher objective estimates with the
slightly lower subjective classifications yields an initial
intensity of 120 kt.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The
cyclone remains steered along the southwestern flank of a
subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii is
helping to erode the western periphery of the ridge. This general
motion with some increase in forward speed should persist through
the weekend, with Kiko expected to cross into the central Pacific
basin late tonight or early Saturday. The official forecast track is
near the HCCA consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory. However, a track slightly to the left of the official
forecast would bring Kiko closer to the Big Island. Historically,
cyclones approaching the Big Island from the east can slow and
deflect northward as the island terrain disrupts the low-level flow
and alters the steering currents.

Kiko should remain a powerful hurricane for the next 12–24 hours
while traversing 26–27 C waters with light north-northeasterly
shear. Its annular structure may allow it to resist weakening longer
than typical guidance, despite the surrounding dry environment in
the mid- to upper levels. Beyond 48 hours, a combination of cooler
waters, dry mid-level air, and strengthening west-southwesterly
shear exceeding 30 kt will likely induce rapid weakening. The
official intensity forecast holds Kiko above most of the available
guidance into the weekend, then trends more toward the consensus
aids later in the weekend and early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、张增海  签发：张玲  2025 年 09 月 06 日 10 时
“基科”向西偏北方向移动

时        间:   6日08时

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经138.2度，北纬14.7度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级以上，60米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    951百帕

参考位置:    距离美国夏威夷希洛东偏南方向约1970公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”维持17级

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度先维持再逐渐减弱



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月6日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060836
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in
intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly
surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD
curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a
nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at
6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective
and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt
for this advisory.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt,
and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The
cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical
ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to
gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion
is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next
week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward
under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping
the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast
track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and
represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through
Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear.
Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening
longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over
cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter
progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing
west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more
rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The
official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance
through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the
consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin
headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions
will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

---

433
WTPZ41 KNHC 061036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025

Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in
intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly
surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD
curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a
nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at
6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective
and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt
for this advisory.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt,
and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The
cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical
ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to
gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion
is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next
week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward
under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping
the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast
track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and
represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through
Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear.
Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening
longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over
cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter
progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing
west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more
rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The
official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance
through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the
consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week.

Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin
headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone
Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO
header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact
location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should
continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands
late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、张增海  签发：张玲  2025 年 09 月 06 日 18 时
“基科”向西偏北方向移动

时        间:   6日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “基科”，KIKO

中心位置:    西经139.2度，北纬15.0度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级以上，62米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    946百帕

参考位置:    距离美国夏威夷希洛东偏南方向约1780公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“基科”维持17级

预报结论:   “基科”将以每小时18公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度先维持再逐渐减弱



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月6日14时00分）

莎莎

置換應該是完成了

不過最近這幾小時對流有所減弱



看起來不是風切影響

不知道是不是OHC 不足?   RAMMB的OHC圖壞很久了

不然就是底層問題

pocketbox

WTPA44 PHFO 061443
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko is maintaining a well-defined eye on satellite imagery, but
the convection is becoming eroded over the northern semicircle
of the system.  Also, the cloud tops have warmed somewhat since
last night.  The advisory intensity is set at 115 kt, in general
agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB
and close to the objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.  Scatterometer
data overnight showed that the system remains rather small, with
tropical-storm force winds over a diameter of 100 n mi or less.

The hurricane continues on its west-northwestward trek with an
initial motion estimate of 290/10 kt.  Kiko is moving on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  A mid- to upper-level
trough near Hawaii is eroding the ridge's western periphery, so a
a nearly northwestward motion is likely around 72 hours.  Later in
the forecast period, a more westward track is likely as the
weakening cyclone becomes more responsive to the lower-level
steering flow.  The official forecast track is just slightly north
of the previous official prediction, with some of the consensus
track prediction aids even farther north of the latest official
track. This would keep the center of Kiko north of the main
Hawaiian Islands.  However there is still some uncertainty in
forecasts at 3 days and beyond.

Kiko is traversing SSTs near 26 deg C and should continue to pass
over marginally warm ocean waters during the next few days.  
However, the trough near Hawaii is likely to impart increasingly
strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the cyclone for
the next several days.  The official intensity forecast shows
gradual weakening, and is generally above the consensus model
guidance.  Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows
the deep convection becoming disorganized while the system passes
near the Hawaiian Islands, so the official intensity forecast at
3-5 days could be generous.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and
structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind
are possible over portions of the Islands, but it is still too soon
to determine the exact location or magnitude of these potential
impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress
of this storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 15.5N 140.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 143.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 18.0N 145.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 19.1N 147.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  09/0000Z 20.4N 150.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 21.8N 152.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 24.1N 157.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 25.5N 162.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

918
WTPA44 PHFO 062035
TCDCP4

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko continues to maintain a well-defined eye, but the eyewall
convective tops continue to slowly warm. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased since the last advisory and are currently
in the 90-115 kt range.  Based on a blend of the estimates, the
initial intensity is decreased to 105 kt.

Kiko has moved a little to the right during the past few hours, and
the overall motion is now 295/10 kt.  The hurricane is on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge, and a mid- to upper-level low
seen in satellite imagery near and north of Hawaii is eroding the
ridge's western end. This pattern should cause Kiko to move
west-northwestward to perhaps northwestward for the next 72 h or so.
After that time, a more westward track is expected as Kiko shears
apart vertically and the weakening cyclone is steered more by the
low-level easterly flow.  The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies along the south side of the various
consensus models.  While the current forecast track keeps the center
of Kiko north of the Hawaiian Islands, there is still some spread in
the guidance, and thus uncertainty, in forecasts at 3 days and
beyond.

During the next 2 days or so, Kiko should be passing over sea
surface temperatures near 26C while it moves through a dry
mid-level air mass. This combination should cause some weakening.  
After that, while the sea surface temperatures get warmer along the
forecast track, strong vertical shear produced by the upper-level
low should cause continued weakening, with Kiko expected to shear
apart vertically by 72-96 hr.  The new intensity forecast shows
notably lower intensities than the previous forecast based on the
current intensity and the intensity consensus forecast.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and
structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 16.1N 141.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  07/1800Z 17.7N 144.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  08/0600Z 18.8N 146.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  08/1800Z 20.1N 149.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  09/0600Z 21.4N 151.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  09/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  10/1800Z 24.4N 158.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 25.5N 162.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

觀雲趣

SAR




SSMIS 91

pocketbox

WTPA64 PHFO 062350
TCUCP4

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

...KIKO RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

Satellite imagery indicates that Kiko has been strengthening during
the past few hours. The satellite-based estimated maximum sustained
winds are now near 125 mph (200 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 150 PM HST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 141.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1110 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

恒信金仁

最新的状态可能是多次巅峰以来最强 可以给st