菲律宾中部2525号台风“海鸥”(31W.Kalmaegi) - 将横过菲律宾中部进入南海 - JMA:75KT JTWC:90KT

fy6

TXPQ21 KNES 030556
TCSWNP
A. 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 03/0530Z
C. 10.5N
D. 127.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. THE MET AND PT
ARE 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER
LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GATLING=

Meow

JMA本报直接升至CI4.5，首次认定嵌匿中心。

1. 
   
2. currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:         4.5
   
3. dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:         4.5
   
4. cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:         6
   
5. modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:         4
   
6. trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:         1.5
   
7. patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:         4
   
8. cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:         1
   
9. finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:         4.5
   
10. finalTNumberType:         1

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Enceladus

有风切干扰，Upper Level开眼有阻碍

327

Meow 发表于 2025-11-3 14:13
JMA本报直接升至CI4.5，首次认定嵌匿中心。

03Z 电脑分析Curved Band (<1.0spr)|BAND，人工修改CDO/C-Band (>=1.0spr)|EMBED；06Z 电脑分析CI 4.0，人工修改CI 4.5

桑美和伊欧凯

9月以后菲律宾附近台风灾情比较：博罗依>桦加沙>风神>麦德姆，其中博罗依、麦德姆的灾情集中在越南，前者灾情更大
海鸥目前水汽集中在棉兰老岛方向，可能会成为今年对菲律宾灾情最重的台风

桑美和伊欧凯

Enceladus 发表于 2025-11-3 14:27
有风切干扰，Upper Level开眼有阻碍

低层没有上午好看

Meow

Enceladus 发表于 2025-11-3 14:27
有风切干扰，Upper Level开眼有阻碍

前方垂直风切比预期大，真的被切坏了。

VistaBSOD

蜕变了！真的有燕王的气质！
（但强度还是不够看）

fy6

TPPN10 PGTW 030858
A. TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 10.83N
D. 127.19E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RUCKER

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 030600
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 06
ISSUED AT 0600UTC, 03 NOVEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TYPHOON KALMAEGI (2525) 970HPA
AT 0600UTC, PSTN 10.4N 127.6E MOV W 10KT
MXWD 70KT NEAR CTR
64KT 20NM NE 20NM SE 20NM SW 20NM NW QUAD
48KT 40NM NE 30NM SE 40NM SW 40NM NW QUAD
34KT 60NM NE 50NM SE 60NM SW 80NM NW QUAD

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 031800UTC
PSTN 10.4N 124.5E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 040600UTC
PSTN 10.8N 121.7E, PRES 965HPA, MWXD 75KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041800UTC
PSTN 11.3N 119.3E, PRES 965HPA, MWXD 75KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050600UTC
PSTN 12.0N 116.8E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 051800UTC
PSTN 12.6N 113.9E, PRES 960HPA, MWXD 80KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 060600UTC
PSTN 13.3N 111.0E, PRES 955HPA, MWXD 85KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070600UTC
PSTN 15.4N 105.7E, PRES 970HPA, MWXD 70KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 10.4N 127.6E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 031200UTC
WEATHER MANILA=