阿拉弗拉海二级热带气旋“菲纳”(02U/05S.Fina) - 影响澳洲北部 - JTWC:65KT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 12.2S 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 12.7S 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.4S 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 14.1S 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.8S 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.9S 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.1S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 131.6E.
21NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 212100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
   
4. 015//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.7S 131.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 71 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA (05S) HAS CROSSED THE COBOURG PENINSULA AND
    
18. IS TRACKING THROUGH THE VAN DIEMEN GULF WHILE INTENSIFYING, ON A
    
19. TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO DARWIN. ANIMATED
    
20. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING AND
    
21. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EASING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
    
22. WHERE THE SYSTEM HAD BEEN FIGHTING THE SHEAR FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS.
    
23. THERE IS STILL MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE NORTH, BUT OVERALL
    
24. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
    
25. ORGANIZATION AND VIGOR HAVE VISIBLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12
    
26. HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THE JTWC DVORAK
    
27. OF T4.0 AND THEN RAISED A NOTCH DUE TO SURGING ADT RAW AND AIDT
    
28. VALUES AND ESPECIALLY A JUMP IN THE DMINT VALUES WITH THE 211611
    
29. AMSR-2 PASS. THE COLOR 37-89 IMAGES SHOW SOME OMINOUS SIGNS OF EVEN
    
30. MORE THAN THE 76KT ESTIMATE, BUT THE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING OVER THE
    
31. COBOURG PENINSULA AT THE TIME AND ALL OTHER DATA SHOWED A MUCH
    
32. LOWER INTENSITY, SO THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE IS BEING DISCOUNTED
    
33. SOMEWHAT FOR THE MOMENT. THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE IS SO STRONG,
    
34. HOWEVER, THAT IT HAS ACTED AS A CONFIDENCE WRECKER AND THE SYSTEM IS
    
35. BEING WATCHED WARILY FOR ANOTHER SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION. ANOTHER
    
36. FACTOR IN SITTING TIGHT FOR ANOTHER CYCLE IS THAT TC 05S IS MOVING OUT
    
37. OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PHASE AND INTO THE WINDOW OF AVAILABLE VISUAL
    
38. IMAGERY, SO AT WORST CASE THE ANALYSIS WILL LAG FOR ONE CYCLE.
    
39. 
    
40. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 211247Z ASCAT.
    
41. 
    
42. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED
    
43. OVER THE CONTINENT NEAR 20S 140E IS KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFF-SHORE.
    
44. 
    
45. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
46.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
47.    ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 211730Z
    
49.    CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 211730Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-MINT: 76 KTS AT 211611Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 66 KTS AT 211900Z
    
52. 
    
53. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
54.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
55.    SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
    
56.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
57.    OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION ON EITHER SIDE AS THE SYSTEM
    
58. TRACKS BETWEEN MELVILLE ISLAND AND THE TOP END.
    
59. 
    
60. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
61.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
62.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
63.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
64. 
    
65. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
66. 
    
67. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: A 120 HOUR POSITION HAS BEEN ADDED TO
    
68. THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAY TAKE
    
69. 24 HOURS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF THE NORTHERN
    
70. TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY AS THE RAIN BANDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ADD
    
71. MOISTURE TO THE HEAT BATTERY.  
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE VORTEX OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S MAY REMAIN
    
74. NARROWLY OFF-SHORE OF DARWIN BUT THE WIND FIELDS AND RAINFALL WILL
    
75. BE VIGOROUS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. A GRADUAL EASING OF VERTICAL WIND
    
76. SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
    
77. 48 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE
    
78. SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS ARE
    
79. ALREADY SHOWING THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM
    
80. FROM OVER THE CONTINENT ARE ALREADY HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
    
81. MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE STORM, AND
    
82. 700-300MB COLUMN MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    
83. SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND LIMITED TO A SMALL CORE OF MOISTURE BY
    
84. THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF WYNDHAM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
    
85. TO COME ASHORE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF
    
86. AND THEN DISSIPATE AT A SLOW RATE DUE TO THE BROWN OCEAN EFFECT.
    
87. 
    
88. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST 24
    
89. HOURS BUT THEN SPREADS TO A HIGHER DEGREE THAN USUAL AS THE SYSTEM
    
90. MOVES INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF, THEN SPREADS EVEN FURTHER IN
    
91. THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE MORE HIGHLY SKILLED TRACKERS AND NEWER AI
    
92. TRACKERS, WHICH HAD A GOOD RUN IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC THIS PAST
    
93. SEASON, DIVERGE TO THE SOUTH AND TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND IN A
    
94. DISSIPATION SCENARIO. ONLY ONE ENSEMBLE (GEFS) KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
    
95. WATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
    
96. AFTER TAU 72 PLUNGES TO A LEVEL FAR LOWER THAN AVERAGE.  THE
    
97. INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS A SMOOTH AND COHERENT SLOPE WITH JTWC
    
98. STAYING ON THE HIGH END OF CONSENSUS, BUT ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
    
99. FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) STILL EXISTS, CONSISTENT FALSE
    
100. POSITIVES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN A MORE SKEPTICAL
     
101. OUTLOOK FOR RI.
     
102. 
     
103. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
104.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
105.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
106.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
107.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
108. NNNN

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ygsj24

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the Tiwi Islands and the area near and between Cape Hotham to Point Stuart are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 07:29 AM CST on Saturday 22 November 2025

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified to Category 3 in the Van Diemen Gulf.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, and inland to Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: Minjilang to Warruwi.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 6:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.7 degrees South 131.7 degrees East, estimated to be 120 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 115 kilometres east of Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving southwest across the Van Diemen Gulf and is expected to pass north of Darwin later today.
After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea, and then start weakening during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast of Tiwi Islands this morning, moving west during the day, with a slight chance of reaching Wurrumiyanga later today. Very destructive wind gusts are likely near Cape Hotham for a period later this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may be occurring over southeastern parts of the Tiwi Islands this morning, extending west to southern parts of the islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts may develop near Cape Hotham this morning, and possibly extend to Darwin later on Saturday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin during Saturday morning and across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during Saturday. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth and Wadeye later on Saturday or overnight into Sunday morning if Fina takes a more southerly track. HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula, extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin later today and on Sunday. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARDE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about the southern Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities. NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

The next advice will be issued by 10:30 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

	Time (Australian Central Standard Time)Time (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal degrees)Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal degrees)Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
plus 0 hours0 hr	6 am November 22	3	11.7° SouthS	131.7° EastE	20 kilometres20 km
plus 6 hours+6 hr	12 pm November 22	3	11.9° SouthS	131.2° EastE	45 kilometres45 km
plus 12 hours+12 hr	6 pm November 22	3	12.0° SouthS	130.8° EastE	60 kilometres60 km
plus 18 hours+18 hr	12 am November 23	3	12.1° SouthS	130.4° EastE	75 kilometres75 km
plus 24 hours+24 hr	6 am November 23	3	12.3° SouthS	129.9° EastE	85 kilometres85 km
plus 36 hours+36 hr	6 pm November 23	3	12.6° SouthS	129.0° EastE	105 kilometres105 km
plus 48 hours+48 hr	6 am November 24	3	12.9° SouthS	128.3° EastE	120 kilometres120 km
plus 60 hours+60 hr	6 pm November 24	3	13.2° SouthS	127.5° EastE	150 kilometres150 km
plus 72 hours+72 hr	6 am November 25	2	13.2° SouthS	126.9° EastE	170 kilometres170 km

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... storm=SH052026_FINA

小尺寸 風力強 類似1974年的Tracy

SH052026 / FINA | RCM2 - HV | 2025-11-21 20:43:05
        Storm Center Longitude: 131.720
        Storm Center Latitude: -11.639
        Incidence Angle (Degrees): 52.705
        Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 105.83
        Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 98.32
        Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 105.31
        Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 121.32
        RMax (nmi): 7.00 - 8.00