MEDIUM - 南海南部热带低压“森亚尔”(BOB 08/04B.Senyar) - 罕见位置成旋，26日登陆苏门答腊岛，折返东行进入南海再发展 - JMA:GW

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 280330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280330Z-280600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.3N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 04B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.7N
101.5E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS 04B SLOWLY
RECONSOLIDATING AS ITS CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA TOWARDS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA BUT STILL APPEARS VERY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED, OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND DUEL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS GETTING SHIFTED TO THE
WEST BY WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS WITH ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON THE CIRCULATION WITHIN 24 HOURS
BUT THEY SHOW THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO TRANSIT EASTWARD. ENSEMBLES TELL A SIMILAR STORY WITH
GFS REVEALING VERY MINIMAL POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS
OVER LAND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
LIKING THE SYSTEM MORE BUT ALL MEMBERS DISAPPEAR AFTER 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

wwwawa

shadow17

看到LLCC了
JMA進取點就可以爭取第一個北印進口颱了

rdy_united

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/INEGER3 (Teluk Kemang Observatory/直落甘望天文台)
该站在11.27 1624/34Z录得最大持续76.3km/h (21.2m/s、41.2kt)，并在1729/39/44Z录得最大阵风79.7km/h (22.1m/s、43.0kt)，查卫星地图显示海拔接近0，很大概率昨晚在海峡内是TS。另外该站最低气压为1003.7hpa，风向显示中心从其西北侧向东南行进，最后到达其东南侧。

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.3N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 04B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.7N 101.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI)
IMAGERY DEPICTS 04B SLOWLY RECONSOLIDATING AS ITS CROSSING THE MALAY
PENINSULA TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BUT STILL APPEARS VERY BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED, OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO
THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DUEL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
GETTING SHIFTED TO THE WEST BY WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON THE
CIRCULATION WITHIN 24 HOURS BUT THEY SHOW THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT ATTEMPTS TO TRANSIT EASTWARD.
ENSEMBLES TELL A SIMILAR STORY WITH GFS REVEALING VERY MINIMAL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS OVER LAND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE LIKING THE SYSTEM MORE BUT ALL MEMBERS
DISAPPEAR AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Coniji

另一方面，與熱帶氣旋森亞爾殘餘相關的低壓區正為馬來半島以東海域帶來不穩定天氣，並有可能稍為增強

香港天文台已經定性了

红豆棒冰冰

Coniji 发表于 2025-11-28 15:24
另一方面，與熱帶氣旋森亞爾殘餘相關的低壓區正為馬來半島以東海域帶來不穩定天氣，並有可能稍為增強

香港 ...

这像是一个留有余地的表述，既承认了这个系统和“森亚尔”相关，又不直接说它就是“森亚尔”，这样一来，如果后续再加强为TS，无论是否用原名都能自圆其说

红豆棒冰冰

「赤道氣旋」森亞爾
链接：https://www.weather.gov.hk/tc/%E5%A4%A9%E6%B0%A3%E9%9A%A8%E7%AD%86/110126/%E3%80%8C%E8%B5%A4%E9%81%93%E6%B0%A3%E6%97%8B%E3%80%8D%E6%A3%AE%E4%BA%9E%E7%88%BE
星期五, 2025年11月28日

一般來說，熱帶氣旋通常在遠離赤道的溫暖洋面上形成。然而，在過去的星期二及星期三（11月25日及26日），北印度洋熱帶氣旋「森亞爾」（Senyar）在北緯僅4至5度的馬六甲海峽形成，並增強為氣旋風暴[1]，是自2001年熱帶風暴「畫眉」以來，再次有已命名的熱帶氣旋出現在馬六甲海峽。

圖一 香港時間11月26日上午8時左右的紅外線衛星圖像[3]，當時森亞爾在馬六甲海峽增強為氣旋風暴。圖中疊加森亞爾及其殘餘的暫定路徑。

由於赤道附近的科氏力相當小，並不有利渦旋的產生，因此熱帶氣旋較難在離赤道緯度5度或以內的地方形成[2]。但在今次特定氣象條件下，東北季候風向南推進，擴展至赤道附近，與跨赤道的西南氣流形成水平風切變，加上溫暖的馬六甲海峽洋面為對流提供能量，從而孕育出森亞爾這個罕見的「赤道氣旋」。

圖二 有利森亞爾形成的氣象條件示意圖。

森亞爾在掠過印尼的蘇門答臘島北部後，再次進入馬六甲海峽，並於馬來半島登陸及減弱為低壓區。據報章報導，森亞爾為泰國南部、馬來半島及蘇門答臘島帶來暴雨，引發了嚴重水浸和山泥傾瀉，導致過百人遇難。

與森亞爾相關的殘餘向東橫過馬來半島後，今早（11月28日）重新移入海面，預料會繼續向東至東北方向移動並有機會稍為發展。天文台會密切監察其殘餘會否重新增強為熱帶氣旋。

圖三 香港時間11月28日上午11時30分左右的雷達回波圖像[4]，當時森亞爾的殘餘正重新移入海面。

呂旭昇 黃詩華

註：
[1]　熱帶海洋上產生的氣旋統稱為「熱帶氣旋」，但在不同海洋上也各自有地區性的名稱，例如西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋稱為「颱風」，北大西洋的熱帶氣旋則稱為「颶風」，而北印度洋的熱帶氣旋則稱為「氣旋風暴」。
[2] 為何熱帶氣旋總是在離赤道緯度5度以外形成？
https://www.hko.gov.hk/tc/education/tropical-cyclone/intensity/00150-why-do-tropical-cyclones-always-form-more-than-5-degrees-of-latitude-away-from-the-equator.html
[3] 衛星圖像接收自日本氣象廳的向日葵8號衛星
[4] 雷達回波圖像來源：馬來西亞氣象局及新加坡氣象局

红豆棒冰冰

CIMSS存档最新报文显示向东调整定位，风速调降至20KT

04B SENYAR 251128 0600 3.8N 101.8E IO 25 1005
↓↓↓
04B INVEST 251128 0600 3.8N 103.5E IO 20 1005

菜园子

shadow17 发表于 2025-11-28 14:24
看到LLCC了
JMA進取點就可以爭取第一個北印進口颱了

居然还是第一个，难怪jma那么积极，我以为拿不到GW