迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

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WTIO30 FMEE 160753
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE FEATURE HAS SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED WITH
CLOUD TOPS GETTING WARMER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EYE ANALYSES RANGE BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0 AND SUGGEST
THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING PHASE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DPRINT ANALYSES AVAILABLE. THE
ASCAT-B PASS AT 04.22Z ALLOWS US TO POSITION THE CENTRE OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE THE SAR RADARSAT2 AT 00.42Z ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 100KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS PROBABLY SLIGHTLY
OVERESTIMATED IN THE LAST TWO ANALYSIS TIMES AND WILL BE ADJUSTED
LATER.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD IN CONNECTION
WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGINS A
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM TOMORROW NIGHT IN CONNECTION WITH A SECOND
RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY,
REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. DUDZAI
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH-EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC
FORECAST REMAINS A CONSENSUS BASED ON AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, THE DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES
SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T6.5/7.0

TPXS11 PGTW 160601
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 16/0530Z
C. 16.81S
D. 71.33E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.0. MET YIELDS 6.5. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、刘涛  签发：周冠博  2026 年 01 月 16 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 16日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬16.8度，东经71.3度

强度等级: 强热带气旋

最大风力: 16级，51米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压: 950百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1490公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由13级加强为16级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月16日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T6.5/7.0

TPXS11 PGTW 160858
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 16/0830Z
C. 16.93S
D. 70.98E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5.
MET YIELDS 7.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析降至T5.5/6.5

TPXS11 PGTW 161213
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 16/1130Z
C. 17.05S
D. 70.31E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: W1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. WELL-DEFINED CDO OF 78NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A CF OF 3.0. ADDED 2.5 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF
5.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT. RAPID WEAKENING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

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WTIO30 FMEE 161239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 70.6 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 380 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN IN
INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL. THIS DETERIORATION IS
PROBABLY LINKED TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS
ALSO VISIBLE BY REDUCED CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE 0928Z GCOM-W AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VERY INTENSE INNER
CORE BUT WHICH IS PARTIALLY OPEN ON ITS NORTH SIDE UNDER THE EFFECT
OF THIS WIND SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT AND
THEN ON THE MET/PT YIELDS A FINAL T NUMBER OF 4.5+. IN THE ABSENCE OF
NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT AT 12UTC.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
FROM TONIGHT IN CONNECTION WITH A RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD
SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 70.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 70.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.5S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.3S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.3S 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.3S 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.7S 60.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 24.9S 56.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 31.9S 56.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 70.0E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 161500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 013//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.0S 70.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 607 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH A FILLED EYE AND AN
    
19. IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS
    
20. STARTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE, AND IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE
    
21. WEAKENING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
22. BASED ON TRACKING THE FILLED EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE
    
23. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED
    
24. PRIMARILY ON AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS RANGING
    
25. FROM T5.5-T6.5. COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES HAVE CAUSED CIMSS OBJECTIVE
    
26. INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM, FURTHER
    
27. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
28. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S IS NOW IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
    
29. CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA
    
30. SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
    
31. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
36. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
40.    DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
41.    FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
42.    FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 104 KTS AT 161200Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
46.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
47.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECAST TO IMMINENTLY TURN
    
61. SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    
62. PERIPHERY OF THE STR. A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
    
63. THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE. NEAR TAU 96, THE
    
64. SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED THE RIDGE AXIS AND START A SOUTHEASTWARD
    
65. TURN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. TRACK
    
66. SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR TAU 96 AS THE STEERING
    
67. GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
    
68. MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. REGARDING INTENSITY, 14S IS FORECAST TO
    
69. RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
    
70. AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NEAR TAU 36, THE WEAKENING
    
71. TREND WILL CEASE DUE DECREASING SHEAR AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
    
72. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE
    
73. AROUND TAU 96 AS WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEGIN TO
    
74. INCREASE. 14S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU
    
75. 120, WITH COMPLETION OF THE TRANSITION OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE
    
76. FORECAST WINDOW.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
79. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
    
80. OUTLIERS. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS 195 NM, WHICH OPENS UP TO
    
81. 335 NM AT TAU 120. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 DOES INCREASE
    
82. QUITE A BIT AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. ALONG-TRACK
    
83. SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS AROUND 490 NM, AND IS THE PRIMARY CAUSE FOR
    
84. LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK
    
85. FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT
    
86. THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT,
    
87. WITH MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36
    
88. AND A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
    
89. IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
94.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
95.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
96. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析降至T5.0/6.0

TPXS11 PGTW 161519
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 16/1440Z
C. 17.39S
D. 70.06E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T5.0/6.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS
DUE TO RAPID WEAKENING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T5.0/5.5

TPXS11 PGTW 161819
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 16.97S
D. 69.68E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF
4.0. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 161922 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED A
CLOUDY EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTION AND
FREQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS CENTRE WAS TRACKED
USING SAR IMAGES FROM 1352Z, ASCAT-B AND C FROM 1653Z AND 1732Z. THE
LAST TWO SWATH ALSO MEASURED WINDS OF 70KT. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT AND THEN THE MET/PT GIVES A FINAL T NUMBER
OF 4.0 AND A CI OF 5.0-. AS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AGAIN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT, WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE LATEST ASCAT MEASUREMENTS. IT IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED
AT 75 KT AT 18UTC.

AFTER FOLLOWING A WESTERLY DIRRECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, THE LAST TWO
ASCAT INDICATE THAT IT BEGAN TO CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
DIRECTION IS STEERED BY A RIDGE RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID
TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS.  MOST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONVERGE, WHICH
INCREASES THE RELIABILITY OF THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.=