TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

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JTWC 12Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 171222
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 17.20S
D. 158.44E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

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JTWC 15Z分析无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 171527
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/1440Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

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JTWC 18Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 171759
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/1730Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

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JTWC 00Z分析T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 180007
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 15.77S
D. 157.78E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/21HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

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JTWC 03Z分析升至T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 180322
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 15.77S
D. 157.47E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4N 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.6S 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED MINIMAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C).  GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 94P MOVING IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 180621
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 15.86S
D. 158.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH VERY SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS
1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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JTWC 09Z分析降至T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 180905
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 15.87S
D. 158.37E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/30HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A
DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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Tropical Low 14U
Tropical low (14U) will strengthen as it moves southeast through the eastern Coral Sea, passing within the vicinity of Norfolk Island on Wednesday.

• A tropical low (14U) lies to the northwest of New Caledonia and is starting to track to the southeast.
• There is a Moderate chance that 14U develops into a tropical cyclone later on Monday and Tuesday, while it is located to the north of Norfolk Island.
• It will continue to track to the southeast early in the week, passing close to Norfolk Island during Wednesday. However, by this time 14U may be becoming an extra-tropical system.
• Winds and weather may increase for Norfolk Island on Tuesday and Wednesday depending on the approach and passage of 14U. Residents on Norfolk Island to monitor forecasts for updates.
• 14U is expected to remain well to the east of the Australian coast and mainland, with no direct impacts.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:23 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

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Sun 25  Jan 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 14U

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

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pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 181100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181100Z-190600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.6N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 157.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), MINIMAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD 28-33 KTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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