西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 041224
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/1130Z
C. 16.74S
D. 128.71E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 041511
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/1430Z
C. 16.89S
D. 128.30E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3S 63.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 63.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND
THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S
128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED MASS OF BROADLY TURNING CONVECTION
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041233Z METOP-C 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS BY FURTHER REVEALING THE BROAD
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF 98P ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM HAVING 98P ENTER THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING OVER WATER, HOWEVER ECMWF
AND AIFS SHOW THE CIRCULATION INTENSIFYING BY A MARGINAL AMOUNT AND
REAMING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF ITS SHORT LIFE CYCLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 041803
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/1730Z
C. 16.48S
D. 128.39E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 042104
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/2030Z
C. 16.51S
D. 128.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析无法找到中心

TPXS11 PGTW 042338
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 04/2330Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 050100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/050100Z-051800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3S 63.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 62.5E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND
THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE FROM INTERACTION WITH COASTAL WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
CURRENT VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND SPEED OVER LAND OF THE CIRCULATION
FAVORS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HOWEVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OUTLOOK WITH GEFS SHOWING A
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TRACKING WEST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND EPS SPLIT
BETWEEN HUGGING THE COAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OR FOLLOWING THE
GEFS LEAD AND TRACKING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.C.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

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JTWC 03Z分析认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 050320
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 05/0230Z
C. 18.25S
D. 124.81E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 050629
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 18.42S
D. 124.92E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:51 pm WST on Thursday 5 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 21U is expected to develop off the north Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Onslow to Port Hedland, including Karratha.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 21U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 75 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 65 kilometres of 17.8 degrees South 125.2 degrees East, estimated to be 750 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland and 315 kilometres east of Broome.

Movement: southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 21U is moving to the west over the central Kimberley. It is expected to move offshore of the Kimberley coast during Friday. Once offshore, 21U is expected to develop over waters off the Pilbara coast during the weekend.

21U is forecast to move in a general west southwest direction, remaining parallel to the Pilbara coast during the weekend. From Monday onwards, 21U is likely to begin weakening and turning towards the coast south of Exmouth, possibly moving over land.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible for coastal parts between Onslow and Port Hedland during Saturday.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the Pilbara coast.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Thursday 05 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm February 5	tropical low	17.8S	125.2E	65
+6hr	8 pm February 5	tropical low	18.0S	124.3E	80
+12hr	2 am February 6	tropical low	18.0S	123.2E	90
+18hr	8 am February 6	tropical low	18.1S	122.1E	75
+24hr	2 pm February 6	tropical low	18.4S	121.3E	75
+36hr	2 am February 7	tropical low	18.8S	119.7E	90
+48hr	2 pm February 7	tropical low	19.4S	118.0E	105
+60hr	2 am February 8	1	20.0S	116.5E	130
+72hr	2 pm February 8	1	20.9S	115.1E	155