莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，尔后或在莫峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060721ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 119.8E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
061500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.5S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE
STARTED TO DISAGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90S, WITH ECMWF NOW BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B
(WTXS21 PGTW 060730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 061821
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 06/1730Z
C. 17.33S
D. 59.59E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS
2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 061829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 59.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/07 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2026/02/07 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/08 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/08 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/09 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/09 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/10 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/11 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD, WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
UNDER THE EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TREND
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF NEW ASCAT DATA TO
REALLY CONFIRM THIS, THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STAGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 25 KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
THEN SOUTH-WEST, STEERED ALONG THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO THE
EAST. THIS WEEKEND, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BAROMETRIC COL, MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME VERY SLOW. A NEW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY STEER
THE TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD, MAKING FOREWARD SPEED INCREASE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN MAKE
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FROM THE START OF THE FORECAST. THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN LATEST NWP OUTPUT (IFS,
GFS, AROME AND AIFS) AND THEIR ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SOUTH-EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR ON SATURDAY, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DELAY THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO VERY WEAK ON THE
SYSTEM'S POLEWARD SIDE ON SATURDAY AND THEN ON ITS EQUATORWARD SIDE
ON SUNDAY, HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHEAR DECREASES AND WITH
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MAURITIUS : HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析升回T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 062100
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 06/2030Z
C. 17.56S
D. 59.61E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET & PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 070033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/07 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2026/02/08 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 110

36H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

48H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75

60H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/10 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/11 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS STRONGLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
THE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PULLED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON THE MET IS UP TO 2.5. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
THIS SATURDAY, REMAINING OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ITS
MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL BY SUNDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN
ACCELERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. IT COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
LATEST NWP OUTPUT (IFS, GFS, AROME AND AIFS) AND THEIR ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR
THIS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DELAY THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO VERY WEAK ON THE
SYSTEM'S POLEWARD SIDE ON SATURDAY AND THEN ON ITS EQUATORWARD SIDE
ON SUNDAY, HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHEAR DECREASES AND WITH
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MAURITIUS : HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T2.0/2.0

TPXS12 PGTW 070004
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MAURITIUS)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 18.14S
D. 59.40E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET & PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析升至T2.5

TPXS12 PGTW 070302
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF MADAGASCAR)
B. 07/0230Z
C. 18.45S
D. 59.16E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   06/2117Z  17.83S  59.58E  ATMS
   BRYANT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 070724 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 58.2 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/07 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2026/02/08 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120

36H: 2026/02/08 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120

48H: 2026/02/09 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/09 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 100

72H: 2026/02/10 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/11 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/12 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY,
CONCENTRATING IN THE NORTHERN PART AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CONFIGURATION IS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD A
SHEARED CONFIGURATION WITH A CENTER ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY, LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS OF
AROUND 30KT. RECENT ASCAT DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA FROM 0510UTC IS ONLY
PARTIAL AND DOES NOT ALLOW FOR VALIDATION OF THESE 30KT WINDS, WHICH
ARE LOCATED MORE UNDER THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
LATEST GPM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0127UTC SHOWS MODEST LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WHICH FURTHER CONFIRMS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT
06UTC, DESPITE A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN.

REGARDING THE TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE: THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY, MOVING OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF MAURITIUS. ITS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A BAROMETRIC TROUGH, WITH A TENDENCY TO TURN
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HERE BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY, THE
SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW OR EVEN LOOP, RESULTING IN
AN ERRATIC TRACK. ON SUNDAY EVENING, THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE SYSTEM COULD
THEREFORE MAKE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TUESDAY DAYTIME AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS
THEN EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE ERRATIC
SHORT-TERM TRACK, BUT ALSO REGARDING THE LONGER-TERM SPEED OF
MOVEMENT, WHICH COULD CHANGE THE TIMELINE AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR THIS
SATURDAY AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO KEEPING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY LOW. CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE STARTING ON MONDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SHEAR,
WHILE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FROM MONDAY UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER PASSING OVER LAND,
THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO THE SEA, RETAINING A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION THAT COULD RAPIDLY BRING IT TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS 12 HOURS AFTER ITS RETURN TO THE SEA.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.5

TPXS12 PGTW 070558
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE O MAURITIUS)
B. 07/0530Z
C. 17.66S
D. 57.83E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

pocketbox

WTXS21 PGTW 070730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070730ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S 58.3E TO 18.2S 54.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 58.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 58.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 58.1E, APPROXIMATELY
141NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION KEEPING THE LLC COVERED FROM VIEW. A TIMELY 070511Z ASCAT-B
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED THE LLC TO BE HIGHLY ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AXIS, WITH SURPRISINGLY LIGHT WINDS CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). MAXIMUM WINDS OF JUST 25 KNOTS WERE
FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC, THOUGH IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY
THAT MORE ELEVATED WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHICH THE ASCAT MISSED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE VORTEX REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND VERTICALLY TILTED,
WHICH IS KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL TURN WESTWARD IMMINENTLY, AND TRACK TOWARDS THE
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND AND PROLONG THE DEVELOPMENTAL PERIOD
BEYOND 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTXS21 PGTW 060730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080730Z.//
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