帕劳西北热带低压02W - 数值支持发展，西行趋向菲律宾 - JMA:GW

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HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年2月4日更新）

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GFS 18Z继续预报西行趋向菲律宾，巅峰约986百帕

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JMA 00Z分析DT1.5 MET2 PT2 FT1.5 CI1.5，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        270 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        2.06 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        1

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JTWC 00Z分析升至T2.0，这下应该要升格了吧

TPPN10 PGTW 040010
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OF PALAU)
B. 03/2330Z
C. 8.70N
D. 133.46E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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今天凌晨HY-2C及HY-2B风场扫描

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SSD 00Z分析升回T1.5/1.5

TXPQ28 KNES 040049
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B.  03/2330Z
C.  8.7N
D.  133.5E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO FLARING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

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CIMSS存档显示已升格02W

02W 02W 260204 0000 8.8N 133.1E WPAC 30 1003