约克角半岛四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 逐渐西行横穿澳大利亚北部 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

Ragasa

IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Lockhart River and Cape Melville
and inland to Weipa and Pormpuraaw are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 7:40 am EST on Friday 20 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is crossing the Far North Queensland coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, and
between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, including Coen, Weipa, and Aurukun.

Watch zone: Northern Territory: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including
Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, Ngukurr and Bulman.

Cancelled zone: Cape Melville to Cape Flattery

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 7:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 195 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 270 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.6 degrees South 143.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 50 kilometres northeast of Coen and 780 kilometres east of
Alyangula.
Movement: west at 23 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is moving westwards and is
crossing the Far North Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Coen.

Narelle is forecast to move over Cape York Peninsula as a tropical cyclone
during Friday while weakening. Narelle will then continue to move west across
the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is expected to strengthen again to a severe
tropical cyclone before impacting the eastern Northern Territory from late
Saturday.

Hazards:
Queensland:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre
of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Friday
morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are likely south of Lockhart River to north
of Cape Melville this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are likely to persist
near the centre of Narelle as it moves across Cape York Peninsula during Friday.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely from Cape Melville to
north of Lockhart River. Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are also
forecast to extend across Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Mapoon
and Pormpuraaw, during Friday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING with LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL
is likely in an area of the Cape York Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape
Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Cape Melville as Narelle
approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the
highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the
normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal
residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM
TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula
between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce
MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Northern Territory:

GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales are
expected to develop in coastal areas between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from
Saturday afternoon as Narelle approaches from the east, and extend inland to
areas including Ngukurr on Saturday night or early Sunday morning. VERY
DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible near the centre of the cyclone on Saturday night.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for coastal and
adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and south
of Nhulunbuy from late Saturday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later
Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port
Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
Queensland:

- People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain
in a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very
destructive winds continue.

- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.

- There may be powerlines down, broken glass and other hazards.

- Follow the instructions and advice of Police, Emergency Services personnel
and local authorities.

- Stay informed by checking your local government  s Disaster Dashboards for
the latest updates.

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

- Stay informed by checking your local government  s Disaster Dashboards for
the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland
website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency
Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online
www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Northern Territory:

NTES advises:

People between Port MacArthur and Nhulunbuy, and inland to Ngukurr, should
consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Friday 20 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 am March 20	4	13.6S	143.6E	30
+6hr	1 pm March 20	3	13.6S	142.6E	50
+12hr	7 pm March 20	2	13.6S	141.7E	70
+18hr	1 am March 21	2	13.6S	140.7E	85
+24hr	7 am March 21	3	13.6S	139.6E	85
+36hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.6S	137.4E	95
+48hr	7 am March 22	1	13.8S	135.1E	95
+60hr	7 pm March 22	tropical low	14.0S	132.6E	100
+72hr	7 am March 23	tropical low	14.1S	130.0E	115

pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0120 UTC 20/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 143.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west (276 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (21 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 961 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  20/0600: 13.4S 142.2E:     025 (050):  055  (100):  985
+12:  20/1200: 13.4S 141.2E:     035 (070):  050  (095):  988
+18:  20/1800: 13.4S 140.1E:     045 (085):  055  (100):  985
+24:  21/0000: 13.4S 139.0E:     050 (090):  065  (120):  978
+36:  21/1200: 13.5S 136.9E:     050 (095):  070  (130):  974
+48:  22/0000: 13.7S 134.5E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  995
+60:  22/1200: 13.8S 131.9E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1000
+72:  23/0000: 14.0S 129.4E:     065 (120):  030  (055): 1000
+96:  24/0000: 14.6S 124.5E:     080 (150):  030  (055): 1000
+120: 25/0000: 15.4S 119.9E:     110 (200):  050  (095):  989
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall around 21 UTC (7am AEST) on the
far north Queensland coast, about 75 km south of Lockhart River, at an
estimated intensity of 105 knots (category 4).  

Narelle has since progressed inland on a westward track while weakening.
Position confidence is high, based on imagery from Weipa radar, though the
radar centre is gradually becoming less distinct.

Subjective Dvorak is no longer applicable with the centre over land, with most
objective aids similar. A SAR pass at 1955 UTC (prior to landfall) showed VMax
of 126kt (1 minute mean). Lockhart River, north of the centre, reported
intermittent gale-force winds between about 22 and 23 UTC as the system moved
inland. There have been no other recent proximate observations since landfall.
Intensity estimated at 85 kn based on a standard decay rate over land.  

CIMMS wind shear analysis at 0000 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system
contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 25 to 30 knots. The
system is forecast to weaken further to category 2 during the next 12 hours as
it moves over the Cape Yorke Peninsula. Once it moves into the Gulf of
Carpentaria over water again, environmental conditions are forecast to remain
similar with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper ridge
and potentially continuing to experience moderate to strong easterly shear,
offset by a very moist environment with warm SSTs (>29C) along the forecast
track. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3 strength is
forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast.

A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will
remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There
is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia.
Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle
will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0730 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Lockhart River and Cape Melville and inland to Weipa and Pormpuraaw are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 10:49 am EST on Friday 20 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle moving inland across Cape York Peninsula, now category 3.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, and between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, including Coen, Weipa, and Aurukun.

Watch Zone
Northern Territory: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, Ngukurr and Bulman.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South 143.2 degrees East, estimated to be 45 kilometres north of Coen and 740 kilometres east of Alyangula.

Movement: west at 21 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle crossed the Queensland coast around 7am AEST about 75 kilometres south of Lockhart River as a category 4 system.

Narelle is now moving westwards, currently passing about 45 kilometres north of Coen, and has weakened to category 3. It is forecast to move west over Cape York Peninsula today, continuing to weaken but remaining a tropical cyclone. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is expected to strengthen again to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the eastern Northern Territory from late Saturday.

Hazards:
Queensland:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it moves west across Cape York Peninsula this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are likely south of Lockhart River to north of Cape Melville this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are likely to persist near the centre of Narelle as it moves across Cape York Peninsula for the remainder of today.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely from Cape Melville to north of Lockhart River. Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend across Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, for the remainder of today.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING with LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Cape York Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Mapoon during Friday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Cape Melville for the remainder of today. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.

Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above this morning's normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE on this morning's high tide.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Northern Territory:

GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales are expected to develop in coastal areas between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon as Narelle approaches from the east, and extend inland to areas including Ngukurr on Saturday night or early Sunday morning. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible near the centre of the cyclone on Saturday night.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and south of Nhulunbuy from late Saturday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
Queensland:

- People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive winds continue.

- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.

- There may be powerlines down, broken glass and other hazards.

- Follow the instructions and advice of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Northern Territory:

NTES advises:

People between Port MacArthur and Nhulunbuy, and inland to Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm AEST Friday 20 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am March 20	3	13.4S	143.2E	30
+6hr	4 pm March 20	2	13.4S	142.2E	50
+12hr	10 pm March 20	2	13.4S	141.2E	70
+18hr	4 am March 21	2	13.4S	140.1E	85
+24hr	10 am March 21	3	13.4S	139.0E	90
+36hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.5S	136.9E	95
+48hr	10 am March 22	1	13.7S	134.5E	95
+60hr	10 pm March 22	tropical low	13.8S	131.9E	100
+72hr	10 am March 23	tropical low	14.0S	129.4E	120

hei

臨登陸前仍然保持到125-130節風力還真的厲害

ygsj24

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 143.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 143.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 13.4S 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.4S 139.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.6S 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.8S 134.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 14.3S 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 15.1S 124.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 16.6S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 142.5E.
20MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
265 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS
951 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 200300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.4S 143.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 265 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KT
    
14. 
    
15. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
16. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
    
17. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CANOPY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
18. (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE). THE SYSTEM MADE
    
19. LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA WITHIN THE LAST 3 HOURS AND
    
20. CONTINUES TRANSITING WESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF A
    
21. DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
    
22. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON WEIPA,
    
23. AUSTRALIA RADAR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THE
    
24. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED
    
25. ON LAND INTERACTION IMPACTS AND ASSOCIATED RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
    
26. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SUPPORTED BY 106 KTS DPRINT ESTIMATE. THE
    
27. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TEMPORARILY UNFAVORABLE STATE
    
28. DRIVEN BY THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
    
29. KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OF NOTE, AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    
30. REEMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITHIN THE
    
31. NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO
    
32. REMAIN VERY WARM (29-30 C) AHEAD OF TC NARELLE. RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS
    
33. ROBUST WITH A STRONG WESTWARD COMPONENT.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
38. CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 192030Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 122 KTS AT 192030Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 125 KTS AT 191950Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 106 KTS AT 200000Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
49.    SST: OVER LAND
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NARELLE IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK
    
63. WESTWARD, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AROUND TAU 36 AND
    
64. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE CYCLONE RE-
    
65. EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12, THE
    
66. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 85 KTS. AT THIS TIME, THE VORTEX
    
67. CORE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BROADER THAN BEFORE LANDFALL, RESULTING IN THE
    
68. SYSTEM REQUIRING A PERIOD OF REORGANIZATION BEFORE INTENSIFICATION CAN
    
69. COMMENCE OVER THE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE GULF WATERS. MAXIMUM
    
70. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 90 KTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
71. DURING THIS PERIOD IS DEEMED UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT AND INCREASING
    
72. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POTENTIALLY REACHING 30-35 KTS,
    
73. PRECEDING A SECONDARY LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF GROOTE EYLANDT.
    
74. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK PRIMARILY OVER LAND, WITH A
    
75. BRIEF TRANSIT OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF AROUND TAU 72, LEADING
    
76. TO A STEADY DECAY TREND THROUGHOUT TAU 96. TC 27P IS THEN FORECAST
    
77. TO REEMERGE OVER THE TIMOR SEA AT INTENSITY OF AROUND 45-50 KTS. THE
    
78. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF THE TIMOR SEA WILL YET AGAIN BE FAVORABLE
    
79. FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM REACHING
    
80. 65 KTS BY TAU 120.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A HIGH
    
83. DEGREE OF CONSENSUS WITH ALL MODELS REMAINING WITHIN A 70-80 NM
    
84. CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG-TRACK
    
85. SPREAD INCREASES WITH TIME, PRIMARILY DUE TO MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
    
86. LAND INTERACTION, BUT THE LATEST TRACKERS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN A 170
    
87. NM DISTANCE ENVELOPE AT TAU 120. AS SUCH, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
    
88. THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED AS HIGH. THE INTENSITY
    
89. FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
    
90. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
    
91. BE THE PRIMARY OUTLIER, OFFERING THE MOST CONSERVATIVE MAXIMUM WIND
    
92. SPEED ESTIMATE, WHILE THE JTWC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LAID CLOSE TO
    
93. THAT OFFERED BY THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE.
    
94. 
    
95. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
96.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
97.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
98.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
99.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
100. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：许映龙  2026 年 03 月 20 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”已于今天早晨登陆昆士兰州北部沿海

时  间: 3月20日08时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬13.4度，东经143.2度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 961百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州巴马加东南方向约295公里

变化过程: “纳蕾勒”已于今天早晨5点钟前后登陆昆士兰州北部沿海，登陆时中心附近最大风力有16级（55米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）。过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由17级加强至17级以上又减弱至14级

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度先减弱，20日夜间进入卡奔塔利亚湾后将再次加强，将于22日凌晨在澳大利亚北领地再次登陆（38-45米/秒，13-14级，相当于我国的台风级或强台风级）。受其影响，20日中午至21日中午，澳大利亚北部沿海及海域、卡奔塔利亚湾将有8-11级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达12-15级，阵风16-17级。未来两天，澳大利亚北部将有大到暴雨，局地有大暴雨或特大暴雨（120-300毫米）。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月20日08时00分）

pocketbox

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Lockhart River and Cape Melville and inland to Weipa and Pormpuraaw are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 1:51 pm EST on Friday 20 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle moving west over central Cape York Peninsula.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, and between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, including Coen, Weipa, and Aurukun.

Watch Zone
Northern Territory: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, Ngukurr and Bulman.

Cancelled Zone
Cape Melville to Coen (Queensland).

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 1:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 142.7 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres northwest of Coen and 680 kilometres east of Alyangula.

Movement: west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards across central Cape York Peninsula and is continuing to weaken, though currently remains a category 3 system. Narelle will continue to move west into the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight, where it is expected to strengthen again to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the eastern Northern Territory from late Saturday.

Hazards:
Queensland:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it moves west across Cape York Peninsula this afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are likely to persist near the centre of Narelle as it moves across Cape York Peninsula for the remainder of today, and may affect areas including Weipa and Aurukun this afternoon and evening.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend west across Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, for the remainder of today and tonight

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING with LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Cape York Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Mapoon today.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Northern Territory:

GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales are expected to develop in coastal areas between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon as Narelle approaches from the east, and extend inland to areas including Ngukurr on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected near the centre of the cyclone as it approaches the Northern Territory coast on Saturday night.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and south of Nhulunbuy from late Saturday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
Queensland:

- People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive winds continue.

- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.

- There may be powerlines down, broken glass and other hazards.

- Follow the instructions and advice of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Northern Territory:

NTES advises:

People between Port MacArthur and Nhulunbuy, and inland to Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Friday 20 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 pm March 20	3	13.2S	142.7E	30
+6hr	7 pm March 20	2	13.2S	141.7E	50
+12hr	1 am March 21	2	13.2S	140.7E	70
+18hr	7 am March 21	2	13.3S	139.6E	85
+24hr	1 pm March 21	3	13.3S	138.5E	85
+36hr	1 am March 22	3	13.4S	136.3E	90
+48hr	1 pm March 22	tropical low	13.7S	133.9E	85
+60hr	1 am March 23	tropical low	13.8S	131.3E	95
+72hr	1 pm March 23	tropical low	14.1S	128.8E	105

pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0708 UTC 20/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 142.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west (280 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  20/1200: 13.4S 141.4E:     025 (050):  050  (095):  987
+12:  20/1800: 13.5S 140.3E:     035 (070):  055  (100):  984
+18:  21/0000: 13.5S 139.1E:     045 (080):  065  (120):  977
+24:  21/0600: 13.5S 138.1E:     045 (085):  075  (140):  969
+36:  21/1800: 13.7S 135.9E:     050 (095):  060  (110):  981
+48:  22/0600: 13.9S 133.5E:     050 (095):  030  (055):  999
+60:  22/1800: 13.9S 130.9E:     055 (105):  030  (055):  999
+72:  23/0600: 14.3S 128.4E:     065 (115):  035  (065):  996
+96:  24/0600: 15.1S 123.8E:     085 (155):  030  (055):  999
+120: 25/0600: 15.9S 119.4E:     105 (195):  055  (100):  984
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Narelle has weakened to category 2 strength as it moves west
over land towards the Gulf of Carpentaria.  

The centre remains trackable on Weipa radar with reasonable confidence.
Satellite imagery shows a centre displaced to the west, suggesting the system
is becoming somewhat tilted under moderate to strong easterly deep layer shear.


Subjective Dvorak is no longer applicable with the centre over land, with most
objective aids similar. Peripheral gales are occurring intermittently at Weipa,
some 80 km to the NNW of the estimated centre. There have been no other recent
proximate observations. Intensity estimated at 55 kn based on a standard decay
rate over land, with low confidence.

CIMMS wind shear analysis at 0300 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system
contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 25 to 30 knots. The
system is forecast to maintain low end category 2 strength as it moves into the
Gulf of Carpentaria over water again tonight. Environmental conditions are
forecast to remain similar with the system lying near the northern periphery of
the upper ridge and potentially continuing to experience moderate to strong
easterly shear, offset by a very moist environment with warm SSTs (>29C) along
the forecast track. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3
strength is forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast
on Saturday night, which is consistent with a standard rate of development.

A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will
remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There
is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia.
Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle
will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1330 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Lockhart River and Cape Melville and inland to Weipa and Pormpuraaw are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 4:43 pm EST on Friday 20 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle at category 2 strength moving west and impacting Aurukun.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Queensland: Western Cape York Peninsula between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, including Weipa, Aurukun, and adjacent inland areas.

Northern Territory: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak.

Watch Zone
Northern Territory: Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Cancelled Zone
Eastern Cape York Peninsula including Lockhart River and Coen.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South 142.2 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres east of Aurukun and 630 kilometres east of Alyangula.

Movement: west at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards across western Cape York Peninsula towards Aurukun, where impacts are expected over the next few hours. Narelle has continued to weaken, though currently remains a category 2 system.

Narelle will continue to move west into the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight, where it is expected to strengthen again to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the eastern Northern Territory from late Saturday.

Hazards:
Queensland:

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are likely near the centre of Narelle, including the Aurukun area, as it moves west into the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next few hours.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely between Weipa and Cape Keerweer as Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria this afternoon and evening. These DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend to coastal areas between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw later tonight depending on the movement and development of Narelle in the Gulf.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING with LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in the western half of Cape York Peninsula Pormpuraaw and Mapoon today.

Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Northern Territory:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, late on Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are possible from south of Nhulunby to Nathan River on Saturday night or Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwijak and Port McArthur, including Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and south of Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon and evening. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, from Saturday afternoon and evening.

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
Queensland:

- People in the path of the cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the destructive winds continue.

- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.

- There may be powerlines down, broken glass and other hazards.

- Follow the instructions and advice of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Northern Territory:

NTES advises:

People between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west incuding Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AEST Friday 20 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm March 20	2	13.3S	142.2E	30
+6hr	10 pm March 20	2	13.4S	141.4E	50
+12hr	4 am March 21	2	13.5S	140.3E	70
+18hr	10 am March 21	3	13.5S	139.1E	80
+24hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.5S	138.1E	85
+36hr	4 am March 22	2	13.7S	135.9E	95
+48hr	4 pm March 22	tropical low	13.9S	133.5E	95
+60hr	4 am March 23	tropical low	13.9S	130.9E	105
+72hr	4 pm March 23	tropical low	14.3S	128.4E	115

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 142.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 142.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 13.4S 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 13.5S 137.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.7S 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.9S 133.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 14.4S 128.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 15.4S 123.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 16.9S 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 141.5E.
20MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
304 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 955 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 200900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.4S 142.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 304 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    
    
15. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
16. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
17. CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) QUICKLY TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
    
18. NORTHERN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA WITH A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING
    
19. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CHARACTERIZES A
    
21. SHORT-TERM UNFAVORABLE PHASE DRIVEN PRIMARILY FROM PERSISTENT LAND
    
22. INTERACTION AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER 25 KTS.
    
23. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
24. ANIMATED MSI AND WEIPA, AUSTRALIA RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
    
25. INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
26. ONGOING AND EXPECTED RAPID WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND
    
27. LAND INTERACTION. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TC 27P WILL REEMERGE
    
28. OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTRODUCING AN IMPROVED
    
29. ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C AND
    
30. SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
35. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST, OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 200530Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 200530Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 93 KTS AT 200429Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 72 KTS AT 200600Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
60. WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR
    
61. CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA UNTIL TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, A
    
62. WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
    
63. WEAKEN AND RETREAT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC NARELLE TO BEGIN
    
64. A MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
65. FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 27P IS EXPECTED TO
    
66. REEMERGE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
    
67. CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SLOWING THE RAPID WEAKENING
    
68. PHASE. AT THIS TIME, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
    
69. BROAD WHILE SURFACE INTENSITIES GRADUALLY DECAY TOWARD 85 KTS BY
    
70. TAU 24 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE VWS EXCEEDING 25 KTS. AS TC 27P TRACKS
    
71. WESTWARD, A SECONDARY LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE NORTHERN
    
72. TERRITORY IS FORECASTED, ERODING THE SURFACE VORTEX TO 75 KTS BY
    
73. TAU 36. AS TC NARELLE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
    
74. TERRITORY, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, DECAYING INTENSITIES TO
    
75. 55-60 KTS BEFORE REEMERGING OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF BETWEEN
    
76. TAU 48 AND TAU 72. AFTER THE BRIEF TRANSIT OVER OPEN WATER, A THIRD
    
77. LANDFALL IS FORECASTED IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA,
    
78. FURTHER WEAKENING SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 50-55 KTS BETWEEN TAU 72
    
79. AND TAU 96. PRIOR TO TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN REEMERGE
    
80. OVER OPEN WATER, IN THE TIMOR SEA, AND START TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
    
81. TOWARD 70 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ENVIRONMENTAL
    
82. CONDITIONS BECOME MOSTLY FAVORABLE.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
    
85. VERY STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
    
86. PERIOD, EXHIBITING A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 43 NM BY TAU 72,
    
87. GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 128 NM BY TAU 120. THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
88. BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE LATER TAUS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
    
89. INTERMITTENT LAND INTERACTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD
    
90. TRACK; HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS WITHIN A 200 NM ENVELOPE.
    
91. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH
    
92. CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE INITIAL 72 HOURS, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
93. THEREAFTER. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
    
94. BEEN ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT
    
95. THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NOTABLY, THE GFS
    
96. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A RAPID WEAKENING
    
97. PHASE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH STEADY INTENSITIES NEAR 45
    
98. KTS THEREAFTER, CONTINUING AS THE ONLY OUTLIER.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
102.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
104.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：许映龙  2026 年 03 月 20 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”将在澳大利亚北部地区沿海再次登陆

时  间: 3月20日14时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬13.3度，东经142.2度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:  984百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚昆士兰州巴马加南方向大约270公里的约克角半岛西部地区

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由17级以上减弱至11级

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度先减弱，20日晚上进入卡奔塔利亚湾后将再次加强，将于22日凌晨在澳大利亚北部地区沿海再次登陆（35-42米/秒，12-14级，相当于我国的台风级或强台风级）。受其影响，20日晚上至21日晚上，澳大利亚北部沿海及海域、卡奔塔利亚湾将有8-11级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达12-14级，阵风15-16级。未来两天，澳大利亚北部将有大到暴雨，局地有大暴雨或特大暴雨（120-300毫米）。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月20日14时00分）