|
|
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-8 23:30 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 8.6S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 8.5S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 8.5S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 8.9S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 9.3S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 10.9S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.8S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.2S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 155.6E.
08APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584
NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 081500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
- 014//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 8.6S 155.7E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 584 NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 02 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM DIAMETER
- EYE FEATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30P (MAILA) PROVIDING HIGH
- FIDELITY FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS
- IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CERTAINTY, REPRESENTING A CONSENSUS OF
- AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE AUTOMATED ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- THE SYSTEM EXHIBITS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF MINOR WEAKENING AND
- STRENGTHENING AS EVIDENCED BY THE MEASUREMENTS OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE
- SINCE LAST WARNING, GOING FROM -16 C AT 080600Z, WARMING TO -3 C AT
- 080900Z AND THEN COOLING AGAIN TO -19 C AT CURRENT TAU. ENVIRONMENTAL
- ANALYSIS REVEALS MAINLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND A
- WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD-ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
- PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL TO ARREST THE
- INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS A NEGATIVE OCEANIC FEEDBACK VIA AN
- UPWELLING-INDUCED COLD WAKE, A FEATURE PROMINENTLY SIMULATED BY THE
- HAFS AND HWRF COUPLED MODELS. THE PROJECTED COLD POOL IS CO-LOCATED
- AHEAD OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. AT PRESENT, THE OBSERVED
- STRUCTURAL CONDITION SUGGESTS THIS THERMODYNAMIC INHIBITOR IS NOT YET
- A DOMINANT FACTOR.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 081053 METOP-C ASCAT PASS
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
- THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
- KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 081130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 108 KTS AT 081130Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 89 KTS AT 081230Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW (3-4
- KTS) GENERALLY WESTWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- SUBSEQUENTLY, A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
- ANTICIPATED AND DRIVEN BY THE REPOSITIONING OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
- CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PROJECTED TRAJECTORY
- MAINTAINS TC 30P ON A COURSE JUST SOUTH OF THE PAPUAN PENINSULA, WITH
- POTENTIAL FRICTIONAL EFFECTS DRIVEN BY THE LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU
- 72, TC MAILA WILL TURN WESTWARD AGAIN, AS THE RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER
- AND STEERS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MOSTLY FLAT CAPE YORK PENINSULA,
- AUSTRALIA. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW, A
- DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPWELLING POTENTIAL. THE
- COUPLED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC COLD WAKE
- (BELOW 26 C) DIRECTLY ALONG THE FORECAST PATH, WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY
- LEAD TO A CESSATION OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE OBSERVED
- PERSISTENT DEEPENING SUGGESTS THE COLD POOL MAY BE LESS EXTENSIVE
- OR THAT AMBIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN MODELED.
- GIVEN THE OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS.
- SLIGHT, BUT PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, WITH A PEAK
- INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 110-115 KTS PROJECTED BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
- TAU 24. THEREAFTER, A STEADY DECAY PHASE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN,
- DRIVEN BY INCREASING MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (PROJECTED TO
- REACH 35 KTS AROUND TAU 72) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INDUCED
- FRICTIONAL WEAKENING FROM THE OWEN STANLEY RANGE, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
- MEDIUM, WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
- MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS CONSENSUS REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
- DIVERGENT DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE FASTEST GFS, THE
- MID-RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAVGEM, BRACKETED BY THE SLOWEST
- UKMET, GALWEM, AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TRACKERS. WHILE THE GENERAL
- STEERING PATTERN IS AGREED UPON, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
- CONCERNING THE RATE OF ACCELERATION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL
- QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, AS WELL AS PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE
- OWEN STANLEY RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
- ARISES FROM POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION, WHICH COULD INDUCE TRACK
- DEFLECTIONS AND ACCELERATED WEAKENING SHOULD THE CYCLONE TRACK
- CLOSER TO PAPUA NEW GUINEA. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE OBSERVED
- STRUCTURAL CONSOLIDATION IS CORROBORATED BY NEARLY ALL GLOBAL
- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE
- IS LOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPWELLING
- PHENOMENON AND THE LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONG
- MODELS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HAFS AND HWRF) PREDICT
- AN IMMEDIATE WEAKENING DOWN TO 60 KTS BY TAU 24, AS A RESULT OF THE
- UPWELLING EFFECTS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: qiqi
发表于 2026-4-8 08:55
