斐济以西三级强热带气旋“韦亚努”(11F/31P.Vaianu) - 南下快速发展 - FMS:85KT JTWC:100KT

Ragasa

WWNZ40 NZKL 100615
STORM WARNING 194
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
AT 100600UTC
OVER WATERS SOUTH OF 25S.
LOW 973HPA, FORMER CYCLONE VAIANU, NEAR 29S 179E MOVING
SOUTHSOUTHWEST 10KT.
1. WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST: CLOCKWISE 50KT.
2. OUTSIDE AREA 1 AND WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN SECTOR
FROM EAST THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTHWEST: CLOCKWISE 40KT.
3. OUTSIDE AREAS 1 AND 2 AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO EAST: CLOCKWISE 40KT.
STORM AND GALE AREAS MOVING WITH LOW.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 187.=

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FQPS43 NZKL 100705
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SUBTROPIC
Area from 25S to 40S, western boundary from 40S 163E to 29S 170E then to 25S 170E, eastern boundary 170W.
Issued by Meteorological Service of New Zealand,
Wellington issued at 100705UTC Valid until 111200UTC.
Part 1 - WARNINGS
WARNINGS IN FORCE: 194
Part 2 - Situation analysis at 100600UTC:
Low L1, former Cyclone VAIANU, 970hPa near 29S 179W, moving southwest 5kt.
Part 3 - Forecast:
Refer to latest warnings.
Within 420 nautical miles of L1 in northern quadrant: Clockwise 30kt, with storms and gales as in warning 194, areas of poor visibility in rain with possible thunderstorms, areas of heavy swell.
Within 540 nautical miles of L1 in sector from northeast through southeast to northwest: Clockwise 30kt, with storms and gales as in warning 194, areas of poor visibility in rain with possible thunderstorms, areas of heavy swell.
Outlook for the following 72 hours:
Low (former Cyclone VAIANU) near 34S 176E, moving south. In a broad area about low (former Cyclone VAIANU): clockwise gale but storm near low centre easing by 121800UTC, and areas of heavy swell easing by 130000UTC. West of New Zealand and south of 35S: Southwest quarter 30kt to gale and heavy southwest quarter swell, both developing by 131800UTC.

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100152ZAPR2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZAPR2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10APR26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 496 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10APR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 737 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (SS 31P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.2S
178.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.7S 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED WITHIN A TIGHT SWIRL OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS, ABSENT OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (23-24 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 53 TO 58 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 977 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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