TCFA - 关岛东南93W - 7.7N 149.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展 - JMA:GW

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z分析DT1.5 MET1 PT1.5 FT1.5 CI1.5，命名机会不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        271 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        4.63 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        4
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        2

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析亦维持T2.0

TXPQ23 KNES 051223
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B.  05/1130Z
C.  8.3N
D.  148.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.0. MET=1.5. PT=2.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO FLUCTUATING BANDING FEATURES AND AN
ADJUSTED MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

lawman

eoj329 发表于 2026-5-5 16:39
暫時來看，結合傳統預報和AI預報而言，系統以西或西北偏西的移動方向趨向130°E以西的菲東洋面概率很大。 ...

關鍵在於本週尾西風槽東移對副高的打擊
現時5月副高未必好強大，所以副高好容易斷開

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集