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JTWC:REMAINS LOW→REMAINS MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 73.5E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY
DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS MAINTAIN A TREND LENDING TO A
DECREASED PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, AS THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE
SYSTEM MORE OVER LAND. THE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO DEPICTED A
SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING A MOVE IN THE SHORT-TERM,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE SHORT-
RANGE AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO SHORE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE SHORT-
TERM CONTINUES TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 73.5E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY
DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS MAINTAIN A TREND LENDING TO A
DECREASED PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, AS THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE
SYSTEM MORE OVER LAND. THE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO DEPICTED A
SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING A MOVE IN THE SHORT-TERM,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE SHORT-
RANGE AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO SHORE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE SHORT-
TERM CONTINUES TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2025-5-23 17:07
发表于 2025-5-23 17:53
