2502号热带气旋“圣帕”(02W.Sepat)机构发报专帖

yhh

台 风 公 报
预报：翟丽萍  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 06 月 24 日 18 时
“圣帕”将减弱为热带低压

一、“圣帕”位于日本以南洋面

今年第2号台风“圣帕”（热带风暴级）的中心今天（24日）下午5点钟（北京时，下同）位于日本东京偏南方向约640公里的日本以南洋面上，就是北纬30.0度、东经140.3度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒），中心最低气压为998百帕，七级风圈半径80-150公里。

二、“圣帕”将减弱为热带低压

预计，“圣帕”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，并将在今天夜间减弱为热带低压。

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 241200
CCAA 24120 99398 11165
SEPAT 02303 11401 12114 220// 93304
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 241200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD SEPAT 2502 (2502) INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC
00HR 30.3N 140.1E 1002HPA 15M/S
MOVE NNW 17KM/H
P+12HR 32.0N 139.4E 1005HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月24日21時45分発表

24日21時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約280km
中心位置        北緯30度35分 (30.6度)
東経140度05分 (140.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 280 km (150 NM)
南西側 110 km (60 NM)

25日09時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南南西約120km
予報円の中心        北緯32度05分 (32.1度)
東経139度25分 (139.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

25日21時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の北西約70km
予報円の中心        北緯33度35分 (33.6度)
東経139度20分 (139.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2502 SEPAT (2502)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   TS SEPAT IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 140.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    
11.   MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    
12.   CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    
13.   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
16.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
    
17.   CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    
18.   DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
    
19.   IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
    
20.   AROUND THE CSC.
    
21. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
22.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
23.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    
24.   BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    
25.   FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    
26.   AGREEMENT.
    
27. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
28.   THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
29.   INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
    
30.   TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
    
31.   CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
32. =

复制代码

ygsj24

No.2 SEPAT KMA | Issued at(KST) : Tue, 24 Jun 2025, 22:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Tue, 24 Jun 2025, 12:00 Analysis	-	1	18	65	1002	30.6	140.1	NNW	16	200 [SW 100]		-
Wed, 25 Jun 2025, 00:00 Forecast	-	TD	15	54	1006	32.2	139.5	NNW	15			50

ygsj24

輕度颱風聖帕
編號第 02 號
國際命名 SEPAT

現況
2025年06月24日20時
中心位置在北緯 30.6 度，東經 140.1 度
過去移動方向 北北西
過去移動時速 14公里
中心氣壓 1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 80 公里
　西北側 70 公里 東北側 100 公里
　西南側 70 公里 東南側 70 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 12 公里
預測 06月25日02時
中心位置在北緯 31.2 度，東經 139.8 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 25 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 17 公里
預測 06月25日08時
中心位置在北緯 32.1 度，東經 139.5 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 50 公里

預測 12 小時內減弱為熱帶性低氣壓

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 13 公里
預測 06月25日14時
中心位置在北緯 32.8 度，東經 139.4 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 70 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 15 公里
預測 06月25日20時
中心位置在北緯 33.6 度，東經 139.5 度
中心氣壓1008百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 10 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 15 公尺
70%機率半徑 90 公里

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 30.6N 140.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 140.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 31.9N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 33.4N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 35.1N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 37.6N 143.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 41.5N 148.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 140.0E.
24JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

yhh

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.6N 140.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 283 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DECOUPLING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT CONTINUES ON A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED
SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS HOW OUTFLOW HAS CEASED AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD, PUTTING THE SYSTEM IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THE TROUGH.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CUT OFF THE
WESTWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL, PREVENTING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 241128Z GPM GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALING THE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT COULD NOT
HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIES EASILY ON ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW ALONGSIDE A PARTIAL 241204Z METOP-C
ASCAT WIND VECTOR IMAGE REVEALING 25-30KTS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 240937Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 241120Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN TAU
12-24, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST, RESULTING IN SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 30KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LESSEN, BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 36 UNTIL TAU 48. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 72 AT AN INTENSITY OF 30KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
THE TRACK SPEED VARIES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
NAVGEM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS, WITH AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 275NM BY TAU 48. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A
CONSISTENT INTENSITY BETWEEN 30-35TS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 241500
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
9706 9924 9815 9899 6386(2502)5714 3583
1601 3049 2467 0255 2972 4882 4099 9975
BABJ/3049 =
NNNN

台风快讯
2025年总129期
中国气象局中央气象台06月24日23时04分

“圣帕”今天晚上20时在日本以南洋面减弱为热带低压，目前其强度进一步减弱，已很难确定其环流中心，中央气象台于6月24日23时对其停止编号。

台 风 公 报
预报：王皘  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 06 月 24 日 23 时
“圣帕”停止编号

       “圣帕”已于今天（24日）晚上在日本以南洋面减弱为热带低压，目前其强度进一步减弱，已很难确定其环流中心。中央气象台于24日23时对其停止编号。

yhh

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月25日00時50分発表

25日00時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南約230km
中心位置        北緯31度00分 (31.0度)
東経139度55分 (139.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 280 km (150 NM)
南西側 110 km (60 NM)

25日12時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の南西約80km
予報円の中心        北緯32度30分 (32.5度)
東経139度20分 (139.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        65 km (35 NM)

26日00時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        八丈島の北北西約110km
予報円の中心        北緯34度00分 (34.0度)
東経139度25分 (139.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)

2018_26W

台風第2号(セーパット)
2025年06月25日03時45分発表

25日03時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        伊豆諸島近海
中心位置        北緯31度00分 (31.0度)
東経140度00分 (140.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2502 SEPAT (2502)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  241800UTC 31N 140E
MOVE  NNW 10KT
PRES  1006HPA =

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 241800
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.11 FOR TD LOCATED AT 31N 140E
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   SEPAT (2502) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED AT
   
6.   31N, 140E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
   
7.   ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA
   
8.   AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
   
10.   OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
    
11.   THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    
12.   ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
13. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
14.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
15.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    
16.   SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
    
17.   VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
    
18.   MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    
19.   CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
21.   SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
    
22. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
23.   SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
    
24. 5.REMARKS
    
25.   THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
    
26. =

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