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发表于 2025-10-19 05:21
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JTWC/30W/#04/10-18 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.9N 122.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 102 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A POORLY ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL WITH FRAGMENTED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH
LUZON, OFFSET BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DAET, PHILIPPINES
(98440) IS REPORTING SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 8KTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 181900Z, WHILE ALANBAT, PHILIPPINES (98435) IS REPORTING
4KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 181900Z, INDICATING THE LLCC MUST BE SOUTH
OF BOTH OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BY USING THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO TRIANGULATE THE LOCATION WITH OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 181730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 181730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 181725Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 181800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN LUZON
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (FENGSHEN) WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH LUZON FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE REEMERGING OVER WATER IN THE WESTERN PHILIPPINE SEA. AFTER
REEMERGING JUST AFTER TAU 12, 30W WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTHEAST.
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48, 30W WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING
RIDGE, CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.
BETWEEN TAU 48-72, FENGSHEN WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR THAT WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA, CAUSING IT TO CURVE
SOUTHWESTWARD. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A COLD SURGE FUNNELING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT WILL PUMMEL THE SYSTEM WITH COLD, DRY AIR.
30W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL BRIEFLY REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH AS A RESULT
OF THE ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE COLD SURGE WITH A PEAK AT 70 KTS
BETWEEN TAU 48-72. AFTER TRANSITIONING STEERING RIDGES AND BEGINNING
ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, 30W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE SUDDEN SURGE OF STABLE AIR
ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF STALL AND A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE STALL AND SOUTHWESTWARD
CURVE, INJECTING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72, AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 30W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AFTER REEMERGING
OVER WATER AND REACHING A PEAK BETWEEN TAU 60-72. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-10-19 06:01
