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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-24 22:50 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 11.8S 97.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 97.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.7S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.6S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.5S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 11.5S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 97.3E. 24DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 241500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
- 015//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 11.8S 97.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 48 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (GRANT) HAS DISPLAYED A HIGHLY CYCLICAL
- NATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH EPISODIC BURSTS OF
- CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY CONVECTIVE DISSIPATION AND ENHANCED
- NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SATELLITE LOOP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
- INDICATES WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER DISSIPATION CYCLE AT THE
- CURRENT MOMENT. AND VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOUR AGO, THE LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME CHALLENGING TO LOCATE AS THE
- CONVECTIVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND LEAVES BEHIND STRONG
- MID-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH OBSCURES THE LLCC. TWO RECENT MICROWAVE
- PASSES (A 121157Z SSMIS AND A 121146Z WSF-M) WERE FAIRLY DISSIMILAR
- IN DEPICTING THE STRUCTURE OF TC 09S, AND DID NOT PROVIDE MUCH
- CLARITY TO THE ANALYSIS. THE SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE LINED UP CLOSEST
- WITH WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE EIR LOOP, AND THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
- PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
- CONVECTION WHICH AT THAT TIME WAS JUST STARTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE
- SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
- ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
- WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VWS, WEAK POLEWARD AND
- WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. DRY AIR REMAINS A CONCERN, WITH THE
- TPW LOOP SHOWING A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUSHING UP FROM THE
- SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, WITH A
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STR
- POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK TROF TO THE SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 241208Z
- CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 241130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 241230Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 241208Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 241230Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: LOW
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOW
- PACE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
- CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AS THE STEERING PATTERN
- REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK, WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM MULTIPLE
- RIDGES AND A COL REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN OUT BY
- TAU 36 AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE
- RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD AND STRENGTHENS THE STEERING
- GRADIENT. TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48, WHILE
- CONTINUING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD AND MOVES SOUTHWEST
- ALONG WITH TC 09S. INTENSITY PRESENTS A BIT TRICKIER OF A
- PROPOSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
- THE HIGHLY CYCLICAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE PAST
- COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE NEAR TERM, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
- INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH
- DECREASING SHEAR AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW TC 09S TO
- INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THOUGH THE EXPECTED PEAK
- INTENSITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE, NOW EXPECTED TO BE 60 KNOTS. AFTER
- TAU 36, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE, WHILE DRY AIR WILL MOVE
- IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL, INITIATING A WEAKENING PHASE, WHICH IS
- EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, CONDITIONS LOOK
- TO IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN, AND TC 09S WILL RE-INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
- REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- ON THE TRACK SCENARIO. THE GFS IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
- OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SOUTH EDGE, WITH THE
- CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO 75NM AT TAU 72, AND 125NM AT TAU
- 120. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AS WELL,
- WITH ALL MEMBERS OF BOTH THE GEFS AND ECEPS SHOWING A SHALLOW
- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTWARD
- TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AI ENSEMBLE
- MODELS (EC-AIFS AND GDM FNV3) SHOW A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY COMING
- INTO PLAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME MEMBERS
- BEGINNING TO TURN POLEWARD, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY STICK TO THE
- SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
- POSITIONED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE ECENS MEAN TRACKERS WITH
- HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
- WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWING A WAVE-LIKE TRACE OF
- NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THEN WEAKENING, FOLLOWED BY
- RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
- PEAK BETWEEN 45-60 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 (EXCEPT FOR THE
- RIDE AND CTR1 RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS WHICH DEPICT THE SYSTEM
- REACHING 70-75 KNOTS) AND A LOW-POINT BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS BY TAU
- 72. THE MODELS GET A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN THE LONG-TERM, WITH NEARLY
- ALL INDICATING RI AFTER TAU 96, WITH THE HAFS-A REACHING 120 KNOTS
- BY TAU 120. THE HYPER-AGGRESSIVE HAFS-A IS PULLING THE CONSENSUS
- MEAN UP TO UNREALISTIC LEVELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.
- THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 96, AND
- THE GFS DETERMINISTIC TRACKER THROUGH TAU 120.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-24 17:15
