迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析T4.5/5.0

TPXS11 PGTW 170016
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 17.44S
D. 68.63E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.5/5.0/W2.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF
4.0. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 170031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 405 SW: 150 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CONVECTION, BUT SIGNS OF WEAKENING ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE
APPARENT. ITS POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DISAPPEARED AND ITS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS COLD. SIMILARLY, THE 2034Z GCOM MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH WAS USED TO LOCATE THE CENTRE, SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF DUDZAI, WHICH WAS UNTIL THEN AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO A SHEARED PATTERN DUE TO NORTHWESTERN DEEP
WIND-SHEAR. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ESTIMATES A T NUMBER OF 4.0 AND A CI
OF 4.5, CORRESPONDING TO AN AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 65KT. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT, AIDT, DPRINT, SATCON, ETC.)
WHICH ESTIMATE A WIND INTENSITY BETWEEN 60 AND 75KT. THE FINAL
INTENSITY SELECTED IS 65KT AND DUDZAI REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE FOR THIS ANALYSIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD
SHIFT CLEARLY SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY,
REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE MODELS.  MOST MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONVERGE, WHICH INCREASES THE TRUST OF THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
GALE WINDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 68.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 68.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.2S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.1S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.5S 63.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 22.9S 58.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 27.5S 55.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 36.2S 61.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 68.6E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 170300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 68.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 653 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES
    
18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) CONTINUING ITS WEAKENING PHASE,
    
19. EVIDENCED BY AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND
    
20. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN FROM THE NORTH, FURTHER
    
21. AMPLIFIED BY A MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
    
22. WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH MEDIUM
    
23. CONFIDENCE UTILIZING EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 162017Z GCOMW1 AMSR2
    
24. COLOR 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
    
25. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS WELL, AND IS DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM AGENCY
    
26. DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
27. ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 14S IS SITUATED WITHIN A DETERIORATING
    
28. ENVIRONMENT, WHEREIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
29. AND WARM (27 28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE BEING NEGATED BY
    
30. MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND CONTINUOUS DRY AIR
    
31. ENTRAINMENT.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
36. SOUTHEAST
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
40.    FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 170100Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 170100Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 170100Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
46. UNFAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
48.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
62. SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
    
63. THE GOVERNING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST
    
64. TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CIRCUMNAVIGATE
    
65. THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL
    
66. ATTAIN THE RIDGE CREST AND INITIATE A SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE,
    
67. NAVIGATING THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. FORWARD MOTION IS
    
68. PROJECTED TO ACCELERATE NEAR TAU 96 AS THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
    
69. INTENSIFIES AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
    
70. OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
    
71. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AND COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL
    
72. ENTER THE CIRCULATION AT AN IMPRESSIVE RATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
    
73. LOSE ITS SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE
    
74. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE AT OR PRIOR TO TAU
    
75. 120. CONCERNING INTENSITY, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID
    
76. INTENSITY DECAY THROUGH TAU 24, DRIVEN BY THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
    
77. VWS AND A DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA
    
78. SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AROUND TAU 36, THIS ATTENUATION IS EXPECTED
    
79. TO TEMPORARILY ABATE DUE TO A RELAXATION OF THE VWS AND AN ENHANCEMENT
    
80. OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW JET. THE WEAKENING TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO
    
81. RESUME NEAR TAU 96 AS WESTERLY VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF A DRIER AIR
    
82. MASS INCREASE.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A HIGH
    
85. DEGREE OF CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO
    
86. SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE CROSS-TRACK
    
87. SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS ONLY 100 NM, DIVERGING TO 250 NM BY TAU 120.
    
88. THE ALONG-TRACK DISPERSION AT TAU 120 INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY,
    
89. CORRESPONDING WITH THE PROJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE
    
90. SYSTEM. THIS ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF APPROXIMATELY 650 NM AT TAU 120
    
91. IS THE PRINCIPAL FACTOR DIMINISHING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
    
92. TRACK BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED IN CLOSE
    
93. PROXIMITY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
94. PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE CONSENSUS, WITH MOST
    
95. MODELS DEPICTING RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY A
    
96. PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96 AND WEAKENING
    
97. AFTERWARDS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILARLY ALIGNED WITH THE
    
98. CONSENSUS, HOLDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
102.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
104.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 17 日 10 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 17日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.3度，东经68.9度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 981百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1240公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由15级减弱为12级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月17日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析降至T4.0/4.5

TPXS11 PGTW 170538
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/0231Z
C. 17.37S
D. 68.40E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.5/W2.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS A DT OF
3.5. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO CONSTRAINTS. REANALYZED
POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/0102Z  17.37S  68.50E  SARI
   17/0118Z  17.30S  68.60E  MMWI
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T4.0/4.5

TPXS11 PGTW 170550
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/0531Z
C. 17.63S
D. 68.01E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.5/W2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
REANALYZED POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/0102Z  17.37S  68.50E  SARI
   17/0118Z  17.30S  68.60E  MMWI
   RUCKER

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 170748
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 370 SW: 150 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 305

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI KEPT A CLOUD PATTERN MARKED BY VERY
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS WERE
ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
PASS (WSFM 0118Z AND GMI 0629Z) SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION. THE 06Z INTENSITY WAS SET AT 55KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE 0102Z SAR RCM2 DATA AND THE PARTIAL 0415Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH
SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60KT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD HEAD MORE DIRECTLY
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TOMORROW, DUDZAI'S TRACK
SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS
BETWEEN 50 AND 150KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300KM
AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN
MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
WEAKENING IN THE UPCOMING HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THIS SHEAR SHOULD
THEN TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL-WARM WATERS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED AGAIN. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
POSSIBLE GALE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY MORNING.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES RANGING 4 TO 6M UP TO MONDAY MORNING.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 17 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 17日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬17.6度，东经67.9度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东方向约1120公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由16级减弱为10级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月17日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T4.0/4.5

TPXS11 PGTW 170859
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/0830Z
C. 17.67S
D. 67.78E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.5/W2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 5.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析降至T3.5/4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 171217
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 17.89S
D. 67.34E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/4.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
1NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/0621Z  17.57S  67.90E  GPMI
   PETERSEN