TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析T1.0/1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 181219
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 16.22S
D. 158.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH VERY SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-18 20:37
JTWC 12Z分析T1.0/1.0

JTWC修正分析，改为维持T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 181234 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/1131Z
C. 16.22S
D. 158.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH VERY SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED CI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 181502
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/1430Z
C. 16.40S
D. 158.11E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH VERY SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS
1.5 AND PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   18/1056Z  16.23S  158.45E  GPMI
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.0/1.5，SSD分析T1.0/1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 181803
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/1730Z
C. 16.21S
D. 158.07E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED NEAR VERY
SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A
1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

TXPS26 KNES 181834
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  18/1730Z
C.  16.6S
D.  158.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. SMALL
WELL-DEFINED LLCC PRESENT. MET AND PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    18/1511Z 16.5S 158.0E AMSR2
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 182055
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/2030Z
C. 17.01S
D. 158.14E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED UNDER VERY
SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A
1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析TOO WEAK

TPPS11 PGTW 190000
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 18/2330Z
C. 16.99S
D. 158.18E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK
TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析升至T1.5

TXPS26 KNES 190010
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  18/2330Z
C.  17.0S
D.  158.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/WSFM
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. SMALL WELL-DEFINED
LLCC PRESENT. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    18/1933Z 16.8S 158.0E WSFM
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T1.5/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 190306
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NE OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 17.26S
D. 158.38E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5.
BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0017Z  17.37S  157.90E  GPMI
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.6N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 157.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 158.1E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK AND CONVECTION FREE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TOWARD 28-33 KTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5/1.5，SSD分析降至T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 190621
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/0530Z
C. 17.36S
D. 158.62E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

TXPS26 KNES 190622
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  19/0530Z
C.  17.2S
D.  158.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...NO ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 1.25 DEG FROM LLCC RESULTS
IN A DT OF 0.0. THE MET IS 1.0 AND THE PT IS <1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS THAT LIMIT CHANGES TO T NUMBER TO 0.5 WITHIN FIRST 24 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...EVANS