斐济西南热带低压07F(17U/20U/18P) - 微波风眼构建，惜FMS没有命名

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.5，SSD分析升至T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 271755
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/1730Z
C. 14.42S
D. 169.67E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

TXPS29 KNES 271812
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  27/1730Z
C.  14.6S
D.  169.8E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5. THE PT
IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE THE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR CUT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析升至T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 272113
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/2030Z
C. 14.87S
D. 170.42E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS A 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

TPPS11 PGTW 272152
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/2031Z
C. 14.95S
D. 170.28E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS A 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT. RE-ANALYZED POSITION DUE
TO NEW IMAGERY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

Ragasa

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 272236 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.2S
170.4E AT 272100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM NORTHWEST OF GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
******

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

pocketbox

Tropical Low 20U
Tropical low 20U to bring strong winds to Norfolk Island from overnight Thursday night into Friday.

• Tropical Low 20U is developing east of Vanuatu and has a high chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity later today as it moves to the south southeast.
• Later Thursday it should weaken as it starts to move to the southwest towards Norfolk Island.
• Although 20U is not expected to be a tropical cyclone by the time it reaches Norfolk Island during Friday, strong to gale force southeasterly winds are possible ahead of the system from late Thursday night into Friday.
• Residents of Norfolk Island should monitor forecast updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 11:53 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Fri 30  Jan 11:00 am

Fri 30  Jan 11:00 pm

Sat 31  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 31  Jan 11:00 pm

Sun 1  Feb 11:00 am

Sun 1  Feb 11:00 pm

Mon 2  Feb 11:00 am

Mon 2  Feb 11:00 pm

Tue 3  Feb 11:00 am

Tue 3  Feb 11:00 pm

Wed 4  Feb 11:00 am

Tropical Low 20U

55 (High)

60 (High)

25 (Moderate)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

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null (None)

pocketbox

WTPS22 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) //
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT INVEST
90P CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC. THE 272128Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH HIGHER WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF
THE CIRCULATION. STRUCTURALLY THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST DELAYING A TIGHTER RADIUS AND
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHILE BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED AND INTENSIFYING, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE LLCC WILL BE
MIGRATING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40KT) AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR GIVING THIS SYSTEM AN EXTREMELY SHORT WINDOW OF
INTENSIFICATION AND LIFESPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONEWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290230Z.
//
NNNN


WTPS21 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT INVEST
90P CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC. THE 272128Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH HIGHER WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF
THE CIRCULATION. STRUCTURALLY THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST DELAYING A TIGHTER RADIUS AND
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHILE BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED AND INTENSIFYING, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE LLCC WILL BE
MIGRATING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40KT) AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR GIVING THIS SYSTEM AN EXTREMELY SHORT WINDOW OF
INTENSIFICATION AND LIFESPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290230Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析升至T2.5，SSD分析维持T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 272342
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/2330Z
C. 15.19S
D. 170.82E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS A 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

TXPS29 KNES 280021
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  27/2330Z
C.  15.9S
D.  171.1E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON
A 24HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT
BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

Meow

Forecast to 12:00 29 Jan 2026 UTC (1am Fri, 30 Jan NZT)

A tropical depression 07F (90P) lies between Fiji and Vanuatu. The risk for it to develop into a tropical cyclone is MODERATE for today and tomorrow.

There is a second low (94P) located north of Tonga. Conditions are not favourable for tropical cyclone development today and tomorrow. There is a VERY LOW risk for this low developing into a tropical cyclone.

Outlook to 12:00 01 Feb 2026 UTC (1am Mon, 2 Feb NZT)

The risk of TD 07F (90P) becoming a tropical cyclone reduces to Low on Friday, then very low from Saturday.

Tropical low 94P continues having a VERY LOW risk of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Issued: 12:41pm Wed, 28 Jan
The next bulletin will be issued by 1pm Thu, 29 Jan

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS11 PGTW 280247
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 28/0230Z
C. 15.77S
D. 171.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.5，SSD分析升至T2.5

TPPS11 PGTW 280558
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 28/0530Z
C. 16.76S
D. 171.86E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/0427Z  15.92S  171.48E  SSMS
   LINDGREN

TXPS29 KNES 280609
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  28/0530Z
C.  17.0S
D.  171.8E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE
MET EQUALS 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING 24-HOUR TREND AND THE PT AGREES. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO THE IRREGULAR BANDING FEATURES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

NRL显示已升格18P

18P EIGHTEEN 260128 0600 16.9S 172.2E SHEM 35 998