西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/050730Z-051800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE FROM INTERACTION WITH COASTAL WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
CURRENT VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND SPEED OVER LAND OF THE CIRCULATION
FAVORS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HOWEVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OUTLOOK WITH GEFS SHOWING A
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TRACKING WEST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND EPS SPLIT
BETWEEN HUGGING THE COAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OR FOLLOWING THE
GEFS LEAD AND TRACKING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 050918
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 05/0830Z
C. 18.50S
D. 124.13E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 051204
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (E OF BROOME)
B. 05/1130Z
C. 17.90S
D. 124.41E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 8:33 pm WST on Thursday 5 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 21U is expected to develop off the north Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Onslow to De Grey, including Karratha, Port Hedland and Barrow Island.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 21U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 65 kilometres of 17.8 degrees South 123.8 degrees East, estimated to be 165 kilometres east of Broome and 610 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland.

Movement: west at 25 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 21U is located over the western Pilbara and is moving to the west. It is expected to move offshore of the Kimberley coast during Friday. Once offshore, 21U is expected to develop over waters off the Pilbara coast during the weekend, reaching category 1 strength during Saturday.

Over the weekend, 21U is forecast to move in a general west southwest direction, remaining parallel to the Pilbara coast. From later Sunday or Monday, 21U is expected to begin weakening as it takes a more southerly track towards the far west Pilbara coast or northern Gascoyne coast.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible for coastal parts between De Grey and Onslow during Saturday and early Sunday.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the Pilbara coast.

Tides between Exmouth and Wickham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday 06 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm February 5	tropical low	17.8S	123.8E	65
+6hr	2 am February 6	tropical low	17.7S	123.1E	75
+12hr	8 am February 6	tropical low	17.8S	122.1E	65
+18hr	2 pm February 6	tropical low	18.0S	121.2E	60
+24hr	8 pm February 6	tropical low	18.3S	120.4E	75
+36hr	8 am February 7	tropical low	18.8S	118.7E	85
+48hr	8 pm February 7	1	19.6S	117.2E	100
+60hr	8 am February 8	1	20.2S	115.6E	130
+72hr	8 pm February 8	1	21.3S	114.3E	165

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 051449
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (E OF BROOME)
B. 05/1430Z
C. 17.76S
D. 123.11E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

WTXS21 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050730Z FEB 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 122.7E TO 19.0S 120.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS
WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO
ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND
AT 051700Z READING 21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL
WATERS (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050730) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A
MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS
(20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND AT 051700Z READING
21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL WATERS (28-29C).
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS PGTW 051800)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS11 PGTW 051810
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (E OF BROOME)
B. 05/1730Z
C. 17.89S
D. 122.71E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

Ragasa

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-6 02:27
WTXS21 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMA ...

WTXS22 PGTW 051900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050730Z FEB 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 122.7E TO 19.0S 120.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS
WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO
ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND
AT 051700Z READING 21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL
WATERS (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E
5. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER WTXS22.//
//
NNNN

---

ABIO10 PGTW 051900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
CORRECTED/051900Z-061800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050730) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A
MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS
(20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND AT 051700Z READING
21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL WATERS (28-29C).
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS 22 PGTW 051900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM REFERENCE MANOP IN
PARA 2.C(1)//
NNNN

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 2:46 am WST on Friday 6 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 21U is expected to develop off the north Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Onslow to De Grey, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Barrow
Island.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 21U at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 122.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 50 kilometres northeast of Broome and 510 kilometres northeast
of Port Hedland.

Movement: west at 21 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 21U is located over the western Kimberley and is moving to the
west. It is expected to move offshore of the Kimberley coast during today. Once
offshore, 21U is expected to develop over waters off the Pilbara coast,
becoming a category 1 tropical cyclone during Saturday.

Over the weekend, 21U is forecast to move in a general west southwest
direction, remaining parallel to the Pilbara coast. From later Sunday, 21U is
expected to begin weakening as it takes a more southerly track towards the far
west Pilbara coast or northern Gascoyne coast.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible for coastal parts
between De Grey and Onslow during Saturday and early Sunday.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING
is possible from later tonight for the Pilbara coast.

Tides between Exmouth and Wickham are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark on Saturday and Sunday and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Friday 06 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

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	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am February 6	tropical low	17.7S	122.6E	45
+6hr	8 am February 6	tropical low	17.6S	121.9E	65
+12hr	2 pm February 6	tropical low	18.1S	121.1E	70
+18hr	8 pm February 6	tropical low	18.4S	120.4E	70
+24hr	2 am February 7	tropical low	18.5S	119.6E	65
+36hr	2 pm February 7	tropical low	19.3S	117.9E	85
+48hr	2 am February 8	1	19.9S	116.5E	100
+60hr	2 pm February 8	2	20.9S	114.9E	135
+72hr	2 am February 9	1	22.0S	113.9E	170