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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 21:00 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 071233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2026/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 57.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/08 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
36H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 150
48H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 120
60H: 2026/02/10 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
72H: 2026/02/10 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/11 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. IN
THIS CONTEXT OF SHEARED CONFIGURATION, A DVORAK T ANALYSIS CAN BE
MADE AT 2.0, NOTING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY INERTIA, A CI OF 2.5
IS MAINTAINED, BUT THE ASCAT DATA FROM 0547UTC, WHICH ARRIVED AFTER
THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, NOTES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25KT. IN RECENT
MOMENTS, THE LOW-PRESSURE VORTEX HAS BEGUN TO BE VISIBLE AND PRESENTS
A FAIRLY WIDE STRUCTURE. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, SYSTEM 10-20252026
HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME.
REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME
ERRATIC WITHIN A BAROMETRIC TROUGH, BUT WITH A TENDENCY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY EVENING, THE MORE DECIDED
WESTERLY MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE
SYSTEM COULD THEREFORE MAKE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR BETWEEN THE END OF
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IS THEN EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE
ERRATIC SHORT-TERM TRACK, BUT ALSO REGARDING THE LONGER-TERM SPEED OF
MOVEMENT, WHICH COULD CHANGE THE TIMELINE AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES BEFORE LANDFALL IN
MADAGASCAR, THEN OPTING FOR SCENARIOS SLIGHTLY NORTHERNER WHEN
RETURNING TO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR THIS
SATURDAY AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO KEEPING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY LOW. CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE STARTING ON MONDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SHEAR,
WHILE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE
SYSTEM COULD THEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FROM MONDAY UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER PASSING OVER LAND,
THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO THE SEA, RETAINING A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION THAT COULD RAPIDLY BRING IT TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS 12 HOURS AFTER ITS RETURN TO THE SEA.
EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MADAGASCAR (NORTHERN COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE):
- VERY LIKELY GALE-FORCE WINDS AT THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY, EVEN
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE LANDFALL AREA, ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
POSSIBLY REACHING 200 MM IN THE LANDFALL AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY.
- 4-METER WAVES EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING, NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. |
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-7 19:47
发表于 2026-2-7 20:15
