|
|
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-9 23:00 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 8.3S 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 8.2S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 8.4S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 8.7S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 9.2S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 9.8S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.4S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 10.8S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 154.3E.
09APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 721
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z
IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(VAIANU) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 091500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
- 016//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 8.3S 154.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 721 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
- COMPACT SYSTEM RAPIDLY UNDERGOING CYCLOSIS AS IT CONTINUES TO
- MEANDER IN THE NORTHERN SOLOMON SEA. THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY MADE AN
- ATTEMPT AT REFORMING AN EYE AROUND THE 1200Z HOUR, WHICH QUICKLY
- FADED AWAY. ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG
- THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT
- PERSISTENT, STRONG, EASTERLY SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
- ORGANIZATION. A 091213Z AWS 180.3GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT
- THE UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, THOUGH
- SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED AS COMPARED TO EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
- THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
- THE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
- ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING, WIDE
- SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A LACK OF RECENT
- WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO
- DETERIORATE, PRIMARILY THE SHEAR WHICH CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
- FROM THE EAST, AND THE VERY COOL SSTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
- COLD UPWELLED POOL, WITH SSTS BETWEEN 22-24 (AN POTENTIALLY MUCH
- LOWER) AS ESTIMATED BY HWRF AND HAFS-A MODEL FIELDS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN
- EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
- AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- ABRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 091130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 93 KTS AT 091130Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 84 KTS AT 091213Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 88 KTS AT 091240Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 22-24 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: POOL OF VERY COOL SSTS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
- CURRENT POSITION DUE TO UPWELLING EFFECTS DURING PREVIOUS TRACK
- THROUGH THIS AREA.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR RAPID
- WEAKENING AND A SLOWER TRACK WHICH ENDS NEAR THE TIP OF PAPUA NEW
- GUINEA.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30P (MAILA) CONTINUES
- MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN SOLOMON SEA, GENERALLY DRIFTING
- WESTWARD ALONG A WEAK STEERING GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
- EXTENSION OF THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE STR OVER
- EASTERN AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD,
- ENABLING TC 30P TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST, THEN GRADUALLY TURNING
- SOUTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY
- NEAR, OR DIRECTLY OVER, WOODLARK ISLAND AS IT CONTINUES
- SOUTHWESTWARD. AT THIS POINT, WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT
- CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY, THE STEERING INFLUENCE CHANGES ABRUPTLY AS A
- NEW DEEP-LAYER STR DEVELOPS THE VICINITY OF VANUATU. THE LARGER
- INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE VORTEX AS IT
- UNDERGOES RAPID WEAKENING AND SHALLOWS OUT. SO WHILE THE DIRECTION
- OF MOVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE, THE SPEED WILL REMAIN SLOW
- AS THE SYSTEM SHALLOWS OUT AND IS INFLUENCED BY A WEAKER STEERING
- GRADIENT. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 30P HAS ALREADY BEGUN ITS RAPID
- WEAKENING PHASE AS IT BEGINS MOVING OVER VERY COOL WATERS UPWELLED
- TO THE SURFACE DUE TO ITS SLOW PASSAGE OF THE AREA DAYS AGO. SSTS
- ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 22-24C, AND THE HAFS-A AND HWRF BOTH
- DEPICT SSTS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 18C IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TC
- 30P CROSSES OVER THE COOLEST PART OF THE COLD POOL. AS THE SYSTEM
- TRACKS OVER THIS COLD POOL, IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FACE STRONG
- EASTERLY SHEAR, AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN
- 40-45 KNOTS OF WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE
- ALREADY SHALLOW AND WEAK VORTEX WILL BE FURTHER DISRUPTED BY THE
- INFLOW OF DOWNSLOPE KATABATIC WINDS FLOWING OFF THE OWEN STANLEY
- RANGE, AND DIRECTLY INTO THE VORTEX. SOME MODELS SHOW COMPLETE
- DISSIPATION OF THE VORTEX WITHIN 72 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED
- EFFECTS OF THESE FACTORS. PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF
- PAPUA NEW GUINEA WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LIFESPAN OF THE
- SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 96
- THEN MAINTENANCE AT THAT THRESHOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST,
- THOUGH AN EARLIER DISSIPATION IS A POSSIBILITY.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, WITH VERY
- HIGH MODEL SPREAD, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER TAUS. THROUGH TAU 48,
- THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AN OVERALL WEST,
- THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
- EC-AIFS AND THE 2ND INTERPOLATION OF THE 0000Z ECMWF WHICH SHOW THE
- SYSTEM TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTH OR WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS
- MEANWHILE RACES OFF THE SOUTHWEST, SHOWING A POSITION IN MILNE BAY
- AT TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY
- CLOSELY PACKED NEAR WOODLARK ISLAND. BY TAU 72, THINGS BECOME
- HIGHLY UNCERTAIN; AIFS TRACKS TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW
- IRELAND, NAVGEM MOVES INTO THE CORAL SEA, GFS IS POSITIONED JUST
- SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY AND THE ECMWF, AI CONSENSUS AND GALWEM
- INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK TO THE TROBRIAND ISLANDS. THIS GENERAL
- TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TAU 120 WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING ALONG
- THE SAME TRENDLINES AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A VERY
- LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. THE
- JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODEL AND
- GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GFS, BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE. CONFIDENCE IS
- LOW, AND WOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW IF THAT WAS AN OPTION. INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND NEARLY ALL OF THE CONSENSUS
- MEMBERS INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY A
- GENERALLY FLAT TREND THROUGH TAU 120.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: qiqi
发表于 2026-4-9 04:50
