2605号热带气旋“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit)机构发报专帖

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WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 7.7N 142.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 142.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 8.2N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 8.8N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 9.3N 137.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 10.0N 135.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 11.1N 133.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 12.2N 130.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 13.4N 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 141.8E. 07MAY26. TROPICAL STORM 05W
(HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 7.7N 142.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 266 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POORLY ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR
AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AS THERE HAS BEEN A DROUGHT OF USEFUL
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS SIMILARLY ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW-MODERATE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND MODERATE (15-20
KTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ARE ACTING TO OFFSET
THE OTHER MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 071200Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 071200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 071200Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 071200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND
ELEVATED MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF YAP AROUND 081800Z.
THE TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AFTER TAU 72 AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD, SETTING UP A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40
KTS AT TAU 12, THEN MAINTAIN 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AFTER TAU 48 IN
AN AREA OF ABUNDANT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASING VWS, BECOMING
FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THE  CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
72 HAS INCREASED TO 175 NM IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. NOTABLY, THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MAKES UP THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK,
SUGGESTING A TRAJECTORY THAT PASSES ABOUT 35 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP
AROUND TAU 36. THE EARLIER DIVERGENCE OF TRACK GUIDANCE TRANSLATES
TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 325 NM BY TAU 120. THE DISPARITY IN
TRACK GUIDANCE IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND 05W APPROACHES THE COL BETWEEN IT AND THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72
AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BIFURCATES FROM TAU 0 WITH A GROUPING THAT INCLUDES SHIPS SOLUTIONS
AND TWO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS (FRIA AND RI45) THAT SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (AS HIGH AS 100 KTS FOR
FRIA) BY TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE REMAINS AT OR BELOW 40
KTS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AMONG THE
LATTER GROUPING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 071500
CCAA 07150 99398 11165
HAGUPIT 05077 11420 13123 225// 93104
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 071500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HAGUPIT 2605 (2605) INITIAL TIME 071500 UTC
00HR 7.7N 142.0E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+12HR 8.5N 140.0E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 9.1N 138.3E 998HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 9.7N 136.8E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 10.3N 135.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 10.9N 134.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 11.5N 132.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 12.6N 130.2E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 13.8N 128.8E 995HPA 20M/S=
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台風第5号(ハグピート)
2026年05月08日00時45分発表

08日00時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯7度30分 (7.5度)
東経141度55分 (141.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西 10 km/h (6 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北側 220 km (120 NM)
南側 165 km (90 NM)

09日00時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯9度20分 (9.3度)
東経138度25分 (138.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        120 km (65 NM)

09日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯10度20分 (10.3度)
東経135度30分 (135.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        210 km (115 NM)

10日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯11度40分 (11.7度)
東経132度55分 (132.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        300 km (160 NM)

11日21時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度35分 (12.6度)
東経130度10分 (130.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        370 km (200 NM)