南海南部热带低压“森亚尔”(BOB 08/04B/34W.Senyar) - 罕见位置成旋，26日登陆苏门答腊岛，折返东行进入南海再发展 - JMA:GW

Enceladus

TPPN11 PGTW 281509
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR)
B. 28/1430Z
C. 4.89N
D. 104.80E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集

327

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-11-28 23:27
看起来像是双中心？有点奇怪

这种风场没有任何机构参考的，应该不是很可靠

dgitg5266

06Z的GFS跟EC还是支持短暫TS



FNV3还是定位错误


综合决定性预报来看 HFSA还是过于乐观了些

dgitg5266

- nameless -
Position: 4.38N 104.20E
Motion: NE (80°), 1.54m/s
DT: 2.0 PT: 2.0
MET: 2.0 D0.5/24HRS
CI: 2.0 FT: 2.0 b.o. PT

CI2.0卻還沒升格 hmmm...

WTPQ51 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 04.4N 104.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT

dgitg5266

JTWC給新編號34W重新發報

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (THIRTYFOUR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (THIRTYFOUR) WARNING NR 008   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 4.5N 105.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.5N 105.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 5.5N 106.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 6.9N 108.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 8.3N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 9.7N 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 105.5E.
28NOV25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (THIRTYFOUR), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM,
HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC
04B, WARNED AS TD 34W, THEREFORE JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 33W (KOTO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Enceladus

TPPN11 PGTW 281811
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR)
B. 28/1751Z
C. 4.85N
D. 105.10E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1345Z 4.48N 104.47E MMHS
28/1427Z 4.65N 104.52E MMHS
HUYNH

Enceladus

04B残余->34W，并评价T2.5

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: WHILE THIS WARNING IS A REGENERATION
OF TC 04B, BEING THE FIRST WARNING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THIS IS
THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TD 34W AND ESTABLISHES
THE REGENERATED FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

TPPN11 PGTW 282057
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (NORTH OF RIAU ISLANDS)
B. 28/2040Z
C. 4.74N
D. 105.59E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR THE COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS
1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1744Z 4.58N 105.10E GPMI

HUYNH

大水台6

JTWC先前对04B残余编号了94W，之后升格34W
但可惜这个过程我们无法发现，直到NRL恢复正常

dgitg5266

JMA在18Z與今日00Z手動將自動分析的PT2.0下修到1.5

估計命名機率不大