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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-12-26 12:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 93.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 93.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.3S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.6S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.9S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.8S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.1S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 93.0E. 26DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 260300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
- 018//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 93.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 206 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
- EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
- OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
- NORTHEASTERLY VWS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALS
- A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO AND
- RAGGED APPEARANCE DUE TO THE VWS. A 260033Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
- SHOWS ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO.
- ANIMATED MSI AND THE SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT TILT TO THE
- VORTEX, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED A BIT FURTHER
- TO THE NORTH UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. CONSEQUENTLY,
- THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE
- PERSISTENT VWS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO 50
- KNOTS, WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 39 TO 62
- KNOTS. IN TERMS OF THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM APPEARS
- TO HAVE PEAKED AROUND 251800Z AS EVIDENCED IN THE 251914Z AMSR2
- 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED A SMALL, WELL-
- DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE TYPICALLY CORRESPONDING TO A 50-55 KNOT
- INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEGRADED SINCE THAT TIME.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
- POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 252100Z
- CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 260000Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 260000Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 62 KTS AT 252159Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 260000Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
- WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
- STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
- SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 55 KNOTS, LIMITED BY
- PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
- AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48, THE INTENSITY WILL
- REMAIN FLAT DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72,
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE, WITH MOISTENING OF
- THE CORE AND DECREASING VWS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
- INTENSIFICATION AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE
- REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH
- CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST,
- HOWEVER, IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO
- THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LATER TAUS, RELIABLE INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH HAFS-A INDICATING A PEAK OF 137
- KNOTS AT TAU 120 AND COAMPS-TC (GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS) SHOWING A
- MUCH LOWER PEAK OF 72 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-25 10:32
