迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 171325
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 33.6 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI KEPT A CLOUD PATTERN MARKED BY VERY
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DECREASED DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. ON THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGES, THE SURFACE CENTRE IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR EXPOSED ON THE CDO
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE. GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE PATTERN, THE
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50KT, BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA TO
CONFIRM THIS, THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TOMORROW,
DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS
TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 150KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES
AND APPROXIMATELY 300KM AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY,
IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS
OF THE MAIN MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING THE
DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
INTENSITY WITH THE PERSISTANCE OF THE SHEAR. THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN
TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A
SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL-WARM WATERS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED AGAIN. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
POSSIBLE GALE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY MORNING.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES RANGING 4 TO 6M UP TO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS
VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 67.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 67.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.1S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.2S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.9S 62.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.8S 60.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.0S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 31.6S 58.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 43.6S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 67.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 171500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 015//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 67.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 586 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) AS A STRUGGLING CYCLONE WITH FLARING BUT
    
19. SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EVIDENT REGION OF VERY DRY AIR HAS
    
21. BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
    
22. THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FROM THE WEST. THE LLCC HAS
    
23. REMAINED PARTIALLY OBSCURED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, HOWEVER,
    
24. LOW-LEVEL CUMULIFORM LINES CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
    
25. JUST BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CIRRUS CANOPY. ALOFT,
    
26. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHWARD
    
27. CHANNEL HAS BECOME LESS PRONOUCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
    
28. ALLOWING FOR THE OBSERVED RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THE ENVIRONMENT
    
29. HAS CONTINUED AS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH LARGE SWATHS OF
    
30. PRESENT AND PERSISTING DRY AIR, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
    
31. NEARING 20 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)AND SEA SURFACE
    
32. TEMPERATURES (SST) DIPPING TO 25 C. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
    
33. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE
    
34. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
35. SUBJECTIVE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
36. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
    
41. THE SOUTH
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
45.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
46.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
47.    FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 170853Z
    
49.    CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 171200Z
    
50.    CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 171100Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 170853Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 171200Z
    
53. 
    
54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
55. UNFAVORABLE
    
56.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
57.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
58.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
59. 
    
60. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
61.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
62.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
63.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
64. 
    
65. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
66. 
    
67. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
68. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
69. 
    
70. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
    
71. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
    
72. PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. FOLLOWING TAU 72 AND
    
73. NEAR THE STR AXIS, TC 14S WILL BEGIN A TERMINAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
    
74. TRACK UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. DURING THE WINDOW
    
75. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH
    
76. TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSIST IN THE SYSTEMS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
77. WHILE USHERING THE CYCLONE QUICKLY POLEWARD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
78. TC 14S WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TOWARD 50 KTS, AS
    
79. THE SYSTEMS CORE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST. FOLLOWING TAU 12, STEADY
    
80. INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED UNTIL TAU 72 WHILE TC DUDZAI FOLLOWS THE
    
81. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH WITH SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW
    
82. ALOFT AND WARM SST (26-27 C). FOLLOWING TAU 72, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
    
83. FORECASTED AS SST RAPIDLY FALL BELOW 26 C, VWS INCREASES ABOVE 15
    
84. KTS, AND DRY AIR ERODES THE SYSTEMS VERTICAL STRUCTURE. BETWEEN TAU
    
85. 72 AND TAU 120, TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
    
86. TRANSITION DURING THE FORECASTED SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
    
87. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 96, SURFACE INTENSITIES WILL
    
88. CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TC DUDZAI TRACKS COMPLETELY BELOW THE
    
89. EQUATORWARD EXTENDING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    
90. COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 WHILE INTENSITIES
    
91. CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 35 KTS AND TC 14S BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED
    
92. WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
    
93. 
    
94. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
95. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
    
96. NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST DURING THE FORECASTED
    
97. RECURVE THROUGH THE STR AXIS AT TAU 72. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
98. 72 IS JUST 81 NM, INCREASING TO 318 NM BY TAU 120 THROUGH
    
99. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD DIVERGES QUICKLY
    
100. AFTER TAU 72 DURING THE FORECASTED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
     
101. WESTERLIES, INCREASING TO 618 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
     
102. IS ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
     
103. PERIOD, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. REGARDING
     
104. INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE A
     
105. RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE OF STEADY INTENSITIES THROUGH THE NEXT 72
     
106. HOURS, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
     
107. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
     
108. 
     
109. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
110.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
111.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
112.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
113.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
114. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析降至T3.0/4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 171528 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/1441Z
C. 17.74S
D. 66.86E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
21NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT AGREES WITH
DT. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID WEAKENING. CORRECTED
FOR REMARKS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-17 23:37
JTWC 15Z分析降至T3.0/4.0

JTWC稍早前重新分析

TPXS11 PGTW 171616
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/1442Z
C. 18.07S
D. 67.32E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
20NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT AGREES WITH
DT. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID WEAKENING. RE-EVALUATED
FOR POSITION AFTER 17/1351Z SCAT BECAME AVAILABLE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/1348Z  18.03S  67.30E  MMWI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.0/4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 171755
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/1730Z
C. 18.19S
D. 66.90E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 18NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT
AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/1348Z  18.03S  67.30E  MMWI
   BRYANT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 171844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 67.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 415 SW: 240 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 0 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE ALSO SPREADING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM'S NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. DUDZAI'S CENTRE IS NOW UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, BASED ON THE DT AND THE MET, HAS
THEREFORE BEEN RAISED TO 3.5. A 1324Z SMOS PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO
50 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 1400Z SAR RCM3 PASS CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HAS
ENABLED US TO BETTER LOCATE THE CENTRE, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 18UTC IS LEFT AT 50 KT
BY INERTIA, BUT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BY 00UTC DUE TO
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTRE.

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TOMORROW, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON
THIS TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 150 KM SOUTH-EAST OF
RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300 KM AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION.
ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OUR RSMC FORECAST
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS
DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM
REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME
SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS ARE LIKELY, FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY'S UPS
AND DOWNS. THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER QUITE WARM WATERS. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THUS BE REACHED
AGAIN BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS
IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING WITH
A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, RODRIGUES
SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE RADIUS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS
VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY NIGHT.=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 180043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 66.3 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/19 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 185 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND AN INCREASING EXTENSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AREA. ON INFRARED
IMAGERY, DUDZAI'S CENTRE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. HOWEVER, THE 2103Z GCOM-W AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A STILL ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE UNDER THE EFFECT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SYSTEM'S
NORTHEASTERN SIDE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MET/PT,
YIELDING A T NUMBER OF 4.0-. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ALSO SHOW A
TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 55
KT AT 00UTC, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS PROBABLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE ESTIMATED CENTRE LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES AND OF MOST NWP GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THIS SUNDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI
COULD PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 150 KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES AND
APPROXIMATELY 300 KM AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT
SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE EAST.
OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS ARE
LIKELY, FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY'S UPS AND DOWNS. WIND SHEAR
SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER QUITE WARM WATERS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THUS BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S
LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A
MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
RODRIGUES SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE RADIUS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY NIGHT.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析T3.5/4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 180011
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 18.90S
D. 66.51E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 35NM IN SHEARED
DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT AGREES WITH
DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/2101Z  18.43S  66.73E  AMS2
   BRYANT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 66.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 66.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.7S 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.6S 61.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.0S 58.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 27.8S 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 37.9S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 66.1E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 180300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 016//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 66.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 525 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI), WITH PULSING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
    
19. ASSOCIATED WITH A QUITE IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
    
20. FEATURE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW FULLY
    
21. OBSCURED, WHILE LOW TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
22. (VWS) REMAINS APPARENT. A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF A DRY AIR CAN BE
    
23. OBSERVED ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE VORTEX. WHILE
    
24. THE LLCC REMAINS INDISTINCT WITHIN THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS,
    
25. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BANDING IS DISCERNIBLE BENEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
    
26. CANOPY, PROVIDING A TRACER FOR THE CIRCULATION. ALOFT, THE POLEWARD
    
27. OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS ROBUST RESULTING IN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
    
28. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY
    
29. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28
    
30. C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VWS. THE
    
31. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
    
32. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 172103Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE
    
33. PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IS
    
34. DERIVED FROM A SYNTHESIS OF SUBJECTIVE AGENCY ESTIMATES AND THE
    
35. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW.
    
36. 
    
37. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
38. 
    
39. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
40. SOUTH
    
41. 
    
42. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
43.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
45.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
46.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
47.    CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 180000Z
    
48.    CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 180000Z
    
49.    CIMSS AIDT: 79 KTS AT 180100Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-MINT: 48 KTS AT 172103Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 180000Z
    
52. 
    
53. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
54.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
55.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
56.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
57. 
    
58. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
59.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
61.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
62. 
    
63. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
64. 
    
65. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
66. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
67. 
    
68. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS PROJECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
    
69. SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
    
70. CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
    
71. STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. SUBSEQUENT TO TAU 48, UPON REACHING
    
72. THE RIDGE AXIS, TC 14S IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE ONTO A FINAL
    
73. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD VECTOR, A HEADING IT WILL MAINTAIN UNTIL THE
    
74. COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DURING THIS
    
75. LATTER PERIOD, AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
    
76. BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE CYCLONE, FACILITATING ITS BAROCLINIC
    
77. TRANSFORMATION AND SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATING ITS POLEWARD MOTION.
    
78. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
    
79. AROUND 55-60 KTS OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS, AS THE INNER CORE
    
80. TEMPORARILY REMAINS SHIELDED FROM THE DRIEST AIR AND ROBUST OUTFLOW
    
81. CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE. BEYOND TAU 72, A MORE CONSISTENT
    
82. WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS SSTS FALL SHARPLY BELOW 26 C, VWS
    
83. INCREASES, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FULLY DECOUPLES THE VORTEX. THE
    
84. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL OCCUR CONCURRENTLY WITH THE
    
85. SOUTHWARD TRACK INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
    
86. TAU 96. BY TAU 96, AS TC 14S BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
    
87. INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, INTENSITY DECAY WILL
    
88. CONTINUE, CULMINATING IN THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
89. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
90. 
    
91. MODEL DISCUSSION: A HIGH DEGREE OF CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG THE
    
92. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE ONLY
    
93. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION DURING BOTH
    
94. INITIAL PHASE AND THE RECURVATURE PHASE NEAR TAU 72. LATERAL TRACK
    
95. UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
    
96. ONLY 60 NM AT TAU 72 (EXCLUDING NAVGEM), INCREASING TO 180 NM BY
    
97. TAU 96 DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE. UNCERTAINTY IN
    
98. FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED, DIVERGES RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE
    
99. SYSTEM ACCELERATES POLEWARD, INCREASING TO 650 NM BY TAU 96. THE
    
100. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
     
101. CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
     
102. TO THE LONG-TERM TRACK FORECAST. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY, THE
     
103. GUIDANCE SUITE DEPICTS A NARROW ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS, INDICATING A
     
104. PERIOD OF STATIC INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY STEADY
     
105. WEAKENING. THIS PROVIDES MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
     
106. FORECAST.
     
107. 
     
108. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
109.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
110.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
111.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
112.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
113. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 18 日 10 时
“杜扎伊”向西南方向移动

时  间: 18日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬18.9度，东经66.3度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 987百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约935公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”由12级减弱为10级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度维持。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月18日08时00分）