TCFA - 新喀里多尼亚西北14U(94P) - 17.1S 159.3E

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 190746 UTC.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF 160E IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER RSMC NADI'S AOR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT ENTERS THIS AOR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN NADI AOR IS LOW.

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NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Tropical Low 14U
Tropical low (14U) will strengthen as it moves southeast through the eastern Coral Sea, passing within the vicinity of Norfolk Island on Wednesday.

• A Severe Weather Warning is current for Norfolk Island and should be referred to for more information.
• A tropical low (14U) lies to the northwest of New Caledonia and is moving to the southeast.
• There is a Low chance that 14U develops into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday or early Wednesday, while it is located to the north of Norfolk Island.
• It will continue to track to the southeast, passing close to Norfolk Island during Wednesday. However, by this time 14U is likely to be an extra-tropical system.
• 14U is expected to remain well to the east of the Australian coast and mainland, with no direct impacts.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 09:02 am UTC

Tropical lows

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Mon 26  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 14U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T1.0/1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 190907
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/0830Z
C. 17.00S
D. 158.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0322Z  17.27S  158.37E  AMS2
   LINDGREN

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WTPS21 PGTW 191230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 159.2E TO 22.4S 162.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 159.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P.  IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO
25 KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KTS IN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201230Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD及JTWC 12Z分析均升至T1.5/1.5

TXPS26 KNES 191153
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  19/1130Z
C.  17.2S
D.  159.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT DUE TO IRREGULAR/FLARING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...MONAGHAN

TPPS11 PGTW 191213
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/1130Z
C. 17.20S
D. 159.21E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 191454
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/1430Z
C. 17.33S
D. 160.15E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 191750
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/1730Z
C. 17.71S
D. 160.66E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS A 2.0. PT AGREES WITH MET.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T1.5

TXPS26 KNES 191842
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)
B.  19/1730Z
C.  18.0S
D.  160.3E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
1.5 BASED ON A 24HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    19/1415Z 17.5S 160.2E AMSR2
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 192053
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 19/2030Z
C. 18.19S
D. 161.18E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS A 2.0. PT AGREES WITH MET. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

Ragasa

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 192112 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTER WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.6S 160.3E AT
191800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS PERSISTENT.
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. TD05F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

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NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.