斐济西南热带低压07F(17U/20U/18P) - 微波风眼构建，惜FMS没有命名

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 172.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 172.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 20.6S 173.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 24.0S 172.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 25.9S 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 172.4E.
28JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
229 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 280230).//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 280900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.9S 172.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 229 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
    
13. VANUATU
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 18P WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
20. CENTER (LLCC) AS BUILDING AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN WRAPPING
    
21. CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
    
22. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 15-20 KTS REMAINS
    
23. EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, ADDING PRESSURE TO THE
    
24. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SLIGHTLY DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND
    
25. SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN ANALYZED AS
    
26. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
    
27. 29-30 C, PERSISTENT VWS, AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
    
28. INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
29. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 280427Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI.
    
30. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
31. BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALIGNED AT T2.5 (35
    
32. KTS).
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
37. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 23 KTS AT 280600Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
58. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
    
61. EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AXIS CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE
    
62. SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
    
63. NEXT 12 HOURS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING
    
64. GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER
    
65. WATER BY TAU 36 ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WESTWARD MIGRATING
    
66. STR. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 18P IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MODERATE
    
67. INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT
    
68. REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
    
69. SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL VWS.
    
70. FOLLOWING TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE,
    
71. WITH VWS INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KTS AT THE SAME TIME DRY AIR
    
72. ENTRAINMENT ERODES THE SURFACE LLCC. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 36,
    
73. SURFACE INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD 30 KTS AS THE
    
74. ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LARGELY UNFAVORABLE WITH VWS ABOVE 40 KTS AND
    
75. EXCESSIVE DRYING THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS. COMPLETE DISSIPATION
    
76. OVER WATER IS FORECASTED BY TAU 36.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
    
79. INTELLIGENCE (AI) GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 36
    
80. HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 47 NM EXPECTED
    
81. AT TAU 12, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 95 NM BY TAU 36. NAVGEM IS
    
82. CURRENTLY THE ONLY OUTLIER, ILLUSTRATING THE LONE TRACK
    
83. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
    
84. TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED CLOSELY TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
    
85. OMITTING THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
    
86. TRACK FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC
    
87. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CHARACTERIZE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE
    
88. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER.
    
89. THE INTENSITY SPREAD AT THE CYCLONES PERIOD OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS
    
90. ABOUT 10 KTS, WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION NEARING 50 KTS AT
    
91. TAU 12. FOLLOWING TAU 12, EACH JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBER
    
92. SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AT VARYING DEGREES UNTIL COMPLETE
    
93. DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
    
94. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND ALIGNED JUST ABOVE THE JTWC
    
95. INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  
    
96. 
    
97. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
98.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
99.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
100. NNNN

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pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 280904 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.1S
171.2E AT 280600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
WIND SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE DRY AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SST
AROUND IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
******

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

pocketbox

Tropical Low 20U
Tropical low 20U not expected to be a tropical cyclone near Norfolk Is but still likely to bring strong winds from overnight Thursday night into Friday.

• Developing tropical Low 20U lies east of Vanuatu is moving to the south southeast and expected to turn to the southwest towards Norfolk Is during Thursday.
• The risk of this low being a tropical cyclone near Norfolk Is is Very Low, and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
• Nevertheless, strong southeasterly winds are expected from late Thursday night into Friday and people on Norfolk Island should monitor forecast updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:35 am UTC

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Tropical Low 20U

45 (Moderate)

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5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T2.5

TPPS11 PGTW 280859
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 28/0830Z
C. 17.80S
D. 172.08E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/0427Z  15.92S  171.48E  SSMS
   28/0707Z  17.22S  172.23E  GPMI
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析升至T3.0

TPPS11 PGTW 281205
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 28/1140Z
C. 18.85S
D. 173.85E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/0707Z  17.22S  172.23E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析亦升至T3.0

TXPS29 KNES 281231
TCSWSP
A.  18P (NONAME)
B.  28/1130Z
C.  18.3S
D.  173.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...7.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT ARE 3.0
BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE

pocketbox

GALE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 281312 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
173.5E AT 281200UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

WITHIN 050 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD07F CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST, EXPECT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 173.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 173.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 22.5S 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 25.0S 172.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 26.6S 170.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 173.6E.
28JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
272 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 281500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 173.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 272 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 18P WITH A COMPLETELY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
    
20. CENTER. MODERATE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25
    
21. KTS HAS PERSISTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
    
22. STRUCTURE, ADDING ADDITIONAL PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
    
23. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH VERY WARM SEA
    
24. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
25. ALOFT, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE VWS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE
    
26. IMAGERY HAS ALSO REVEALED A GROWING DRY SLOT AROUND THE SYSTEMS
    
27. NORTHERN PERIPHERY, SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONES EASTERN
    
28. QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
29. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 280922Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE AND
    
30. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
    
31. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME METOP-B DATA,
    
32. SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE
    
33. INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
38. CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 281130Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 281130Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 280702Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 281230Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
51.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
    
62. EASTWARD, BETWEEN 70-80NM NEAR THE STR AXIS.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
    
65. EASTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AXIS LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
66. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
    
67. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK PAST THE STR
    
68. AXIS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER UNTIL COMPLETE DISSIPATION
    
69. OVER WATER BY TAU 36. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 18P IS EXPECTED TO
    
70. CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TOWARD 50 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITHIN A
    
71. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD, VWS IS
    
72. FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 30 KTS, CREATING AN INCREASINGLY
    
73. HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TC SUPPORT. FOLLOWING TAU 12,
    
74. SURFACE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO
    
75. UNFAVORABLE VWS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS AND INCREASING DRY-AIR
    
76. ENTRAINMENT. BETWEEN TAU 12-36, VWS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE THROUGH
    
77. THE MID-LEVELS WILL ERODE THE SURFACE VORTEX WHILE TILTING THE
    
78. SYSTEMS VERTICAL PROFILE, DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU
    
79. 36.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
    
82. INTELLIGENCE (AI) SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
    
83. ENTIRETY OF THE 36 HOUR FORECAST. NEAR TAU 12, THE CROSS-TRACK
    
84. SPREAD HAS GROWN SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, TO 61 NM.
    
85. AFTER TAU 12, THE CROSS-TRACK DISTANCE BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS
    
86. MEMBERS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WIDEN TO 125 NM BY TAU 36. DUE TO
    
87. THE GROWING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, THE
    
88. JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS HAS STARTED SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, BUT
    
89. CONTINUING TO ILLUSTRATE AN AGREED UPON TRACK AROUND THE STR AXIS
    
90. UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ALIGNED CLOSELY
    
91. TO THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE
    
92. FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS
    
93. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
    
94. NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH A QUICK WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE JTWC
    
95. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS
    
96. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION UNTIL TAU 12 NEAR 50 KTS, ALIGNING CLOSELY
    
97. TO THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER UNTIL TAU 36, LENDING
    
98. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
103. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T3.0

TPPS11 PGTW 281515
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 28/1430Z
C. 19.72S
D. 173.26E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.0，SSD分析升至T3.5

TPPS11 PGTW 281803
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 28/1730Z
C. 21.60S
D. 173.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/1409Z  20.65S  174.00E  AMS2
   HUYNH

TXPS29 KNES 281832
TCSWSP
A.  18P (NONAME)
B.  28/1730Z
C.  21.0S
D.  174.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED 1/3 DEGREES INTO COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT
OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    28/1410Z 20.2S 174.3E AMSR2
...GATLING