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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-6 18:35 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.3S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.0S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.2S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.0S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 120.5E.
06FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92
NM SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 060900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR
- 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 18.8S 120.9E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 92 NM SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 20S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
- CENTER (LLCC) AS FLARING AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED
- THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. LOW-LEVEL
- CURVED CLOUD LINES CAN BE OBSERVED ON ANIMATED MSI WRAPPING JUST
- BENEATH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
- LLCC, SOUTHWEST OF BROOME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LARGELY
- FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30-31 C, MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF
- LESS THAN 5 KTS, AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
- THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
- ON ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES
- AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN A
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND AN ADDITIONAL
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
- INDIAN OCEAN
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 060530Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 060530Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 060555Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 060610Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 0-5 KTS
- SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE LAST
- FEW HOURS HAS CHANGED THE FORECAST TRACK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
- CLOSER TO AUSTRALIA鈥橲 NORTHWEST COASTLINE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU
- 36 SOUTHWEST OF DAMPIER.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
- WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. NEAR
- TAU 36, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHILE
- A SEGMENT OF THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE MEANDERS TO THE
- SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS TO THE
- EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE SAME WINDOW, TC 20S IS FORECASTED TO
- TRACK SOUTHWARD UNTIL JUST AFTER TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, TC 20S IS
- FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT
- OF THE RIDGE AXIS, GAINING A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL
- COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND AT TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, LOW
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KTS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
- AND WARM COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 29-30 C WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK
- INTENSIFICATION TOWARD 75 KTS BY TAU 36, JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
- FOLLOWING TAU 36, TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION, STEADILY INCREASING
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO NEAR 20 KTS, AND DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT
- WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO TAU 72 WILL
- ERODE THE SURFACE VORTEX. TC 20S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
- BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, DECAYING TO 35 KTS NEAR KENNEDY RANGE
- NATIONAL PARK BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) SOLUTIONS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
- 36 HOURS INTO LANDFALL, WITH A 39 NM CROSS-TRACK. FOLLOWING TAU 36,
- JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO ILLUSTRATE A PICTURE OF SLIGHT
- DIVERGENCE, WITH AN INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 62 NM BY TAU 48.
- BY TAU 72, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE TOWARD 127 NM,
- WITH NAVGEM CHARACTERIZING THE WESTERN-MOST TRACK TOWARD LAKE MACLEOD,
- HOWEVER, ALL CURRENT JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW THE ROUNDING OF
- THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 48 EAST OF LEARMONTH AND OVER LAND. THE JTWC
- TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AND ALIGNED
- CLOSELY TO THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC
- MEMBERS, AND AI SOLUTIONS. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY
- CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE A SHARP INTENSIFICATION PHASE THROUGH TAU
- 24, STEADY INTENSITIES BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AND A RAPID
- WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE JTWC INTENSITY
- FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND PLACED JUST
- ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL TAU 36, THEN ALIGNED WITH THE
- MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE UNTIL TAU
- 72.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-6 07:45
发表于 2026-2-6 09:00
