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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-8 23:15 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.2S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.8S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.7S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.8S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 56.4E. 08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 081500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING
- NR 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 56.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 115 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS,
- MAURITIUS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AND
- PERSISTS IN A SUB-OPTIMAL STATE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT MODERATE
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVER THE PAST FEW
- HOURS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTED A
- FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FRAGMENTED
- AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST
- COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND STARTED TO
- ORGANIZE AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE LLCC, WHICH IS NOW OBSCURED; THIS
- MORPHOLOGY SUGGESTS AN EXPECTED ABATEMENT IN SHEAR VALUES. A 081157Z
- GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUITE REVEALED A SHALLOW AND ILL-DEFINED VORTEX,
- WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
- OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, CONTRASTED BY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS TO
- THE NORTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING
- EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, EVIDENCED BY TRANSVERSE BANDS WITHIN THE
- CIRRUS CANOPY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
- ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS TO
- ALIGN WITH THE ASCENDING TREND IN OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TRANSITIONING TOWARD A MORE CONDUCIVE
- REGIME, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), INCIPIENT
- OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND SUBSIDING VWS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGING
- TO THE WEST AND EAST, AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- FMEE: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 081200Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 081100Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 081201Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 081200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
- FLANK.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TC 21S REMAINS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING
- ENVIRONMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
- OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A MORE DEFINITIVE WESTWARD VECTOR IS FORECAST
- AFTER TAU 12 AS A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ESTABLISHES AN
- EASTWARD EXTENSION FROM SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, SUPPLANTING THE TROUGH
- CURRENTLY RESIDING SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. TC 20S WILL ACCELERATE
- WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
- COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 48. POST-LANDFALL, THE MID-LEVEL
- VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL RAPIDLY TRANSIT THE CENTRAL MADAGASCAR
- OROGRAPHIC BARRIER, RE-EMERGING ON THE WESTERN COAST BY TAU 72. THE
- SYSTEM WILL THEN UNDERGO RAPID RE-ORGANIZATION AND CONTINUE ON A
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS EXHIBIT
- SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE REGARDING THE RIDGE PATTERN; THE GFS DEPICTS A
- ROBUST, ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE DRIVING A WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE THE
- ECMWF IDENTIFIES A COL OR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, INDUCING A MORE
- POLEWARD COMPONENT. REGARDING INTENSITY, A REDUCTION IN VWS IS
- FACILITATING INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE COMPACT RADIUS OF
- THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AXISYMMETRIZATION; ONCE A VERTICALLY
- ALIGNED VORTEX IS ESTABLISHED WITHIN A MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
- AND ENHANCED POLEWARD EXHAUST, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS
- PROBABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI) BEGINNING
- AT TAU 12, AND CONTINUE RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
- A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS, BUT THE ACTUAL PEAK WILL LIKELY REACH
- 80-85 KNOTS AND OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
- RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES MADAGASCAR, DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
- ONCE REESTABLISHED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM WILL
- COMMENCE A SECONDARY RI PHASE AS IT PASSES OVER VERY WARM SSTS, WITH
- LOW VWS, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
- OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, BUT SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
- BOTH CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK ASPECTS, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 72.
- THROUGH TAU 48, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS WELL-CONSTRAINED. AFTER TAU
- 72, CROSS-TRACK BIFURCATION INCREASES TO 290NM BY TAU 120. THE ECMWF
- TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TOWARD EUROPA ISLAND, WHEREAS THE
- GFS/GEFS FAVOR A FLATTER TRAJECTORY TOWARD BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THE
- JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 48,
- THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE GDM FNV3 TRACKER THROUGH TAU 120. CONFIDENCE
- IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
- IS MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (GFS AND NAVGEM) MARKING THE LOWER END OF THE
- SPECTRUM WITH A PEAK OF JUST 50 KNOTS, WHILE THE HWRF AND CONSENSUS
- ARE DEPICTING A 65 KNOT PEAK AND THE HAFS-A AND GDM FNV3 ARE REACHING
- 75-80 KNOTS. RI GUIDANCE INCLUDING RIDE ARE TRIPPED, SUGGESTING A
- PEAK OF 80 KNOTS, WHILE THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE
- REACHING AS HIGH AS 65 PERCENT. THE JTWC THROUGH TAU 48 IS PLACED
- NEAR THE HAFS-A MODEL WITH A POTENTIAL. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A
- RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL NEAR-RAPID
- INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. THE ENSEMBLE RI PROBABILITIES
- REACH APPROXIMATELY 40 PERCENT IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
- THE JTWC LONG-RANGE FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-8 10:35
