MEDIUM - 雅浦岛东南95W - 8.5N 140.7E - 或将北上影响关岛 - JMA:LPA

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 140.2E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SPORADIC DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A
080035Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT 95W IS PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS TO THE MARIANAS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C).
BOTH THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE FORMATION OF 95W. OUT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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红豆棒冰冰

JMA今天下午予想天气图继续预报+24h升格TD，+48h维持TD

Enceladus

AI模式基本完全失去了反应，但是EPS显然还在坚持，胜负难料？