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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-10 12:00 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 8.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 8.4S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 8.6S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 8.9S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.2S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 9.8S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 10.4S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 8.2S 154.5E.
10APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 100300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
- 017//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 8.1S 154.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 737 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST
- OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 092033Z F16 SSMIS 91 GHZ
- MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE
- EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
- SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED
- AND IS NOW LOCATED WITHIN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSESSED
- CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
- ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI. A PARTIAL 091930Z RCM-3 SAR
- IMAGE SHOWED WINDS OF 85-95 KTS WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
- CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND FROM THE TIME OF
- THE SAR IMAGE, ALONG WITH THE AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS INTENSITY
- ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 30P
- IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE WESTWARD
- OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR, AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN
- EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
- NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 100010Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 100010Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 092212Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 51 KTS AT 100010Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 22-24 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER A POOL OF COLD SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO UPWELLING EFFECTS
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
- ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
- THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
- BE FULLY BUILT IN UNTIL AROUND TAU 72, SO TRACK SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
- TO BE SLOW MOVING. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
- IN THE ACTUAL DIRECTION THAT 30P TAKES AS MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
- TRACKING IN WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES. THERE IS A CHANCE
- THAT 30P FALLS APART MORE QUICKLY IN A LOCATION CLOSER TO ITS CURRENT
- POSITION. REGARDING INTENSITY, 30P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
- UNDER THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY UPWELLING. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT
- UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. IF THE SYSTEM STAYS IN
- PLACED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, A MUCH EARLIER DISSIPATION COULD
- OCCUR. AS IT STANDS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION
- NEAR THE TIP OF THE PAPUAN PENINSULA NO LATER THAN TAU 96.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
- POOR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
- TRACK, BUT EXTREME VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEEDS BETWEEN MODELS.
- ADDITIONALLY, THERE REMAIN OUTLIERS SUCH AS THE EC-AIFS, WHICH TRACK
- THE VORTEX NORTHWARD VICE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
- PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH LOW
- CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON WEAKENING, BUT AT
- VARYING RATES. HWRF HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING BELOW 35 KTS AT TAU 48
- WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HOLD ONTO THE VORTEX
- FOR LONGER, SUCH AS ECMWF. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
- THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
- OF A MUCH EARLIER DISSIPATION TIMELINE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2026-4-10 10:22
