关岛东南2604号热带风暴“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，数值看好强度

Enceladus

Enceladus

JTWC：HIGH/TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 153.4E TO 9.3N 149.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 152.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7N 153.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90W SLOWLY
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091800Z.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z继续预报在129E附近转向北上，巅峰约929百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析DT1 MET1.5 PT1.5 FT1 CI1，命名机会不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        311 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        5.14 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
finalTNumberType:        1

Enceladus

FNV3 0812Z 西调至穿过马里亚纳群岛

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析升至T2.0

TXPQ22 KNES 081820
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B.  08/1730Z
C.  9.4N
D.  153.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 1504Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWED
CONSOLIDATED CENTER WITH GOOD BANDING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-91 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GRDLY IMPROVING ALQDS. MET AND PT=2.5. FT BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHG TO 0.5 WHEN PREV 6 HR FT NOT >1.5. SYSTEM
MAY BE STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    08/1504Z 9.0N 151.8E AMSR2
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 081825
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 08/1730Z
C. 9.22N
D. 152.66E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集，不少成员支持高强度，甚至有一位成员预报884百帕

Enceladus

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-4-9 03:55
ECMWF 12Z系集，不少成员支持高强度，甚至有一位成员预报884百帕

怎么ECMWF Main-run也这么极端。。。

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 082120
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 08/2030Z
C. 9.26N
D. 152.29E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER