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中东太/北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2025年)

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总版主-南亚高压

喵喵喵

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发表于 2025-1-1 00:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2025-1-1 01:13 编辑

1、为了方便管理和页面整洁、台风论坛继续坚持一扰动一追击帖的老规矩,在本帖所涉及海区无扰动下请在本帖跟帖讨论。不遵守者:删除或合并。
2、当NRL升格扰动后,会员可重新开新的追击。
3、因EC网站更新,本帖无法提供即时更新的EC预报产品,请前往各数值产品服务网站查询。1楼提供EC网站查询部分常用产品的方法。


北大西洋扰动位置直观图

东北太平洋及中太平洋扰动位置直观图

NHC热带系统监测图
北大西洋
2天内气旋形成机率


7天内气旋形成机率

东北太平洋
2天内气旋形成机率


7天内气旋形成机率

CPHC热带系统监测图
中北太平洋
2天内气旋形成机率


7天内气旋形成机率

涡度图

评分

参与人数 1金钱 +2 威望 +2 贡献值 +2 收起 理由
理可的呆萌呆毛 + 2 + 2 + 2

查看全部评分

绫罗飘起遮住日落西,奏一回断肠的古曲

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管理员-厄尔尼诺

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发表于 2025-3-18 00:38 | 显示全部楼层
北大西洋2025年第一个AOI
没啥可能生成

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force
winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves
northward to northwestward into an environment of strong
upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system unless conditions warrant.  Regularly scheduled Tropical
Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special
Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the
remainder of the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

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发表于 2025-4-26 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF系集对东太稍有反应




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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-7 03:57 | 显示全部楼层
GFS持续预报5月中旬加勒比海将有热带系统发展,北大西洋或将迎来新风季首旋






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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-15 21:37 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2025 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alvin          AL-vin           Mario           MAR-ee-o
Barbara        BAR-bruh         Narda           NAHR-duh
Cosme          COS-may          Octave          AHK-tayv
Dalila         dah-LY-lah       Priscilla       prih-SIH-luh
Erick          EHR-ik           Raymond         RAY-mund
Flossie        FLOSS-ee         Sonia           SOHN-yah
Gil            gill             Tico            TEE-koh
Henriette      hen-ree-ETT      Velma           VELL-muh
Ivo            EE-voh           Wallis          WAHL-lis
Juliette       joo-lee-ET       Xina            ZEE-nah
Kiko           KEE-ko           York            york
Lorena         low-RAY-na       Zelda           ZEL-dah

A full list of eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclone names
and pronunciations can be found at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac.pdf

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.  The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT.  After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 72 hours.  For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products.  Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E",
"Three-E", etc.).  

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar.  The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package.  Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found
under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov.  More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf.  New and
updated products for the 2025 season can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2025.pdf.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.  Notifications are available
via X when select NHC products are issued.  Information about our
east and central Pacific X feed (@NHC_Pacific) is available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/socialmedia

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-15 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Today, May 15, marks the first day of routine issuance of the
Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2025.  This product
describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their
potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven
days.  The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through
November 30 each year.  The issuance times of this product are 2 AM,
8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the change to standard time in
November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on
the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-20 21:37 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF系集持续对东太有所反应





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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-20 21:39 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 20 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend into early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-21 02:09 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 20 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend into early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
发表于 2025-5-21 09:06 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 12Z系集继续对东太有所反应

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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