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科科斯群岛西南热带气旋第9号“塔利亚”(14U/14S.Taliah) - 风切、雨带等因素阻碍加强,西南行构建松散大眼 - JTWC MAX:85KT

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发表于 2025-1-31 14:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-2-12 21:35 编辑

实时云图







编扰资讯

90S INVEST 250131 0600 12.5S 120.0E SHEM 25 1003

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
理可的呆萌呆毛 + 3 + 3 90S

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-1-31 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
ABIO10 PGTW 310800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/310800ZJAN2025-311800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZJAN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 67.3E, APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 30JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 29.5S 46.8E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 106.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE 10S LATITUDE ARE HELPING 99S GAIN MORE MOMENTUM IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A 310124Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS
REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SEMICIRCLE APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND
TAKE A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5S
120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
ELONGATED ROTATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10S TO 11S LATITUDE IS HELPING INVEST 90S GAIN
MORE MOMENTUM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A 310124Z PARTIAL METOP-B
ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. APPROXIMATELY
100NM TO THE NORTH THERE IS A WIND FIELD OF STRONG 20-25 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

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强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2025-1-31 20:56 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low forming northwest of the Kimberley has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone.
  • A tropical low (14U) is expected to form offshore to the northwest of the Kimberley coast over the weekend.
  • Conditions are favourable for 14U to rapidly develop into a tropical cyclone early next week.
  • 14U is expected to move westwards and remain well to the north of the WA coast.
  • The risk of 14U developing into a tropical cyclone has increased to a High risk from Monday.
Last updated
4 hours ago, 09:00 am UTC

Tropical lowsTomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm Thu 6  Feb 12:00 am Thu 6  Feb 12:00 pm Fri 7  Feb 12:00 am Fri 7  Feb 12:00 pm
Tropical Low 14U 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate) 55 (High) 60 (High) 60 (High) 60 (High) 60 (High) 60 (High) 55 (High) 40 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate)

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-1 04:10 | 显示全部楼层
ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/311800ZJAN2025-011800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZJAN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 31JAN25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 31.7S 48.5E, APPROXIMATELY 722 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 310900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.6S 105.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 519 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. A 311453Z ASCAT METOP-C
25KM PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT NORTH-WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE 12S
LATITUDE THAT ARE HELPING 99S GAIN MORE MOMENTUM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 120.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVERTOP. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW (20-25 KNOTS)
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
INVEST 90S GAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-1 10:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-1 12:00 编辑

WTXS21 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 010200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 119.7E TO 14.4S 116.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY
OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW (20-25 KNOTS) IS
POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO
WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 103.9E.//
NNNN







ABIO10 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/010230Z-011800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZJAN2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZFEB25//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB25//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FINAL WARNING. REFS C AND D ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 31JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 34.1S 51.9E, APPROXIMATELY 836 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 312100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 104.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 103.9E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW
(20-25 KNOTS) IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND 2.B.(2)
TO HIGH.//
NNNN

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顶级超台

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30073
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-1 14:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2025-2-1 19:55 编辑

WTAU05 APRF 010643
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:14S119E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0643 UTC 1 FEBRUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal nine east (118.9E)
Recent movement : west at 7 knots
Maximum winds   : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 30 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0600 UTC 02
February.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in northern quadrants
by 0000 UTC 2 February with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 01 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.0 south 118.0 east
                        Central pressure 995 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 02 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 14.3 south 116.9 east
                        Central pressure 986 hPa.
                        Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to [email protected].

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 01 February 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE



Headline:
Tropical low 14U is developing northwest of the Kimberley


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 14U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.7 degrees South, 118.9 degrees East , 590 kilometres northwest of Broome and 810 kilometres north northeast of Karratha .
Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical low 14U is developing north of Western Australia and is a High chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday. Over the next few days the system is expected to move west southwest and remain well to the north of the WA coast.


Hazards:
14U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 pm February 1tropical low13.7S118.9E55
+6hr8 pm February 1tropical low13.8S118.5E80
+12hr2 am February 2tropical low14.0S118.0E90
+18hr8 am February 2tropical low14.1S117.4E120
+24hr2 pm February 2tropical low14.3S116.9E150
+36hr2 am February 3214.6S115.4E200
+48hr2 pm February 3314.8S113.7E215
+60hr2 am February 4315.0S112.0E245
+72hr2 pm February 4415.3S110.4E290

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-1 20:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2025-2-2 05:27 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:56 pm WST on Saturday 1 February 2025

A Tropical Low 14U was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 13.8S 119.2E, that is 560
km northwest of Broome and 730 km north of Port Hedland and slow moving.

Tropical low 14U is developing north of Western Australia and is a High chance
of reaching tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday. Over the next few days
the system is expected to move west southwest and remain well to the north of
the WA coast. It is likely to continue strengthening over the next few days,
and is forecast to reach Category 4 on Tuesday.

14U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Sunday 02 February.



AXAU01 APRF 011325
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1325 UTC 01/02/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.8S
LONGITUDE: 119.2E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (243 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 2 KNOTS (4 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 105 NM (195 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  01/1800: 13.9S 118.8E:     040 (080):  030  (055):  996
+12:  02/0000: 13.9S 118.2E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  994
+18:  02/0600: 14.0S 117.5E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  992
+24:  02/1200: 14.2S 116.8E:     065 (120):  045  (085):  989
+36:  03/0000: 14.3S 115.2E:     085 (155):  060  (110):  979
+48:  03/1200: 14.5S 113.6E:     105 (195):  080  (150):  962
+60:  04/0000: 14.6S 111.8E:     125 (230):  090  (165):  953
+72:  04/1200: 14.9S 110.1E:     140 (255):  095  (175):  948
+96:  05/1200: 15.2S 106.5E:     165 (310):  105  (195):  938
+120: 06/1200: 16.2S 102.3E:     210 (395):  095  (175):  948
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 14U WAS LOCATED WITH IR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING, WITH IT POSSIBLY
DRIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CLOUD BASED DT OF 2.5 AND A MET/PAT OF 2.0 BASED ON A
DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. FT AND CI ARE 2.0, EITHER LIMITED TO 0.5 CHANGE OVER
6 HOURS OR MATCHING MET/PAT. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE NOT YET AVAILABLE. INTENSITY
SET TO 30 KNOTS.

THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE OF THIS MOVEMENT CONTINUING FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH LESS ACROSS TRACK SPREAD THAN ALONG TRACK SPREAD.

CIMMS SHEAR INDICATES A STRONG SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE, AND
LOW JUST SOUTH. THIS IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS
GOOD NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED FOR 1200 UTC. FORECAST
SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM TOO. SST ARE 30 DEGREES,
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 28 DEGREES WEST OF 105E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN, WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY, AND REACH CATEGORY 4
BY TUESDAY.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 01/1930 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 pm February 1tropical low13.8S119.2E55
+6hr2 am February 2tropical low13.9S118.8E80
+12hr8 am February 2tropical low13.9S118.2E95
+18hr2 pm February 2tropical low14.0S117.5E110
+24hr8 pm February 2114.2S116.8E120
+36hr8 am February 3214.3S115.2E155
+48hr8 pm February 3314.5S113.6E195
+60hr8 am February 4414.6S111.8E230
+72hr8 pm February 4414.9S110.1E255

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论坛版主-副热带高压

不准拔掉理可的呆毛 ૮₍ ˶•⤙•˶ ₎ა

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发表于 2025-2-2 03:43 | 显示全部楼层
相比13S,感覺90S好像更符合“平淡無奇的西澳氣旋”?

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-2 04:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2025-2-2 05:28 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A Tropical Low 14U was located at 2:00 am AWST near 14.1S 118.5E, that is 590
km northwest of Broome and 690 km north of Port Hedland and slow moving.

Tropical low 14U is developing north of Western Australia and is a High chance
of reaching tropical cyclone intensity later Sunday. Over the next few days the
system is expected to move west southwest and remain well to the north of the
WA coast. It is likely to continue strengthening over the next few days, and is
forecast to reach Category 4 on Tuesday.

14U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Sunday 02 February.



AXAU01 APRF 011856
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1856 UTC 01/02/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 14.1S
LONGITUDE: 118.5E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHWEST (224 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 3 KNOTS (5 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1000 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  02/0000: 14.1S 118.0E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  992
+12:  02/0600: 14.1S 117.5E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  989
+18:  02/1200: 14.2S 116.9E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  986
+24:  02/1800: 14.2S 116.1E:     065 (120):  050  (095):  984
+36:  03/0600: 14.4S 114.6E:     080 (155):  070  (130):  969
+48:  03/1800: 14.5S 113.0E:     105 (190):  085  (155):  956
+60:  04/0600: 14.7S 111.3E:     120 (225):  095  (175):  946
+72:  04/1800: 14.9S 109.8E:     130 (235):  100  (185):  941
+96:  05/1800: 15.1S 106.0E:     175 (320):  100  (185):  941
+120: 06/1800: 16.3S 101.5E:     220 (405):  095  (175):  946
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 14U HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
AND THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTRE. IT WAS LOCATED WITH IR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A MET/PAT OF 1.5 BASED ON A D- 24 HOUR TREND. FT IS 1.5,
CI IS 2.0 LIMITED TO NOT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. D-PRINT AND D-MINT WERE BOTH 30
KNOTS AT 1200 UTC. INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.

THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE OF THIS MOVEMENT CONTINUING FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH LESS ACROSS TRACK SPREAD THAN ALONG TRACK SPREAD.

CIMMS SHEAR INDICATES A STRONG SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE, AND
LOW JUST SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS GOOD NEAR THE CENTRE. FORECAST SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM TOO. SST ARE 30 DEGREES, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 28 DEGREES WEST
OF 105E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY, AND REACH CATEGORY 4 BY TUESDAY.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 02/0130 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 am February 2tropical low14.1S118.5E55
+6hr8 am February 2tropical low14.1S118.0E80
+12hr2 pm February 2tropical low14.1S117.5E95
+18hr8 pm February 2114.2S116.9E110
+24hr2 am February 3214.2S116.1E120
+36hr2 pm February 3314.4S114.6E155
+48hr2 am February 4314.5S113.0E190
+60hr2 pm February 4414.7S111.3E225
+72hr2 am February 5414.9S109.8E235

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-2 08:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 09:25 编辑

AXAU01 APRF 020119
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0119 UTC 02/02/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 14U
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 14.4S
LONGITUDE: 117.7E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (248 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 8 KNOTS (15 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 90 NM (165 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 90 NM (165 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1000 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  02/0600: 14.5S 117.2E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  989
+12:  02/1200: 14.6S 116.7E:     050 (090):  045  (085):  986
+18:  02/1800: 14.6S 116.0E:     060 (110):  050  (095):  983
+24:  03/0000: 14.6S 115.3E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  977
+36:  03/1200: 14.8S 113.8E:     080 (150):  080  (150):  960
+48:  04/0000: 15.1S 112.1E:     100 (185):  090  (165):  951
+60:  04/1200: 15.5S 110.5E:     110 (200):  095  (175):  946
+72:  05/0000: 15.6S 108.7E:     120 (220):  100  (185):  942
+96:  06/0000: 16.0S 104.1E:     170 (315):  100  (185):  942
+120: 07/0000: 17.5S  99.2E:     205 (380):  095  (175):  946
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 14U HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN SIDE. IT WAS LOCATED WITH VIS AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CURVED BAND OF APPROXIMATELY 0.55 GIVES A DT OF 2.5. MET
IS 3.0 BASED ON A D+ 24 HOUR TREND WITH PAT OF 2.5. FT/CI OF 2.5 BASED ON PAT
18Z FT HAS BEEN REVISED TO 2.0 DUE TO NOT LOWERING AT NIGHT DURING FIRST 48
HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT. D-PRINT IS 31 KNOTS AT 0000 UTC AND D-MINT 32 KNOTS AT
1733 UTC. INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 35 KNOTS BUT LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE OF THIS MOVEMENT CONTINUING FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH LESS ACROSS TRACK SPREAD THAN ALONG TRACK SPREAD.

CIMMS SHEAR INDICATES A STRONG SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE, AND
LOW JUST SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS GOOD NEAR THE CENTRE. FORECAST SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM TOO. SST ARE 30 DEGREES, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 28 DEGREES WEST
OF 105E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY, AND REACH CATEGORY 4 BY TUESDAY.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 02/0730 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am February 2tropical low14.4S117.7E55
+6hr2 pm February 2tropical low14.5S117.2E75
+12hr8 pm February 2114.6S116.7E90
+18hr2 am February 3214.6S116.0E110
+24hr8 am February 3214.6S115.3E120
+36hr8 pm February 3314.8S113.8E150
+48hr8 am February 4415.1S112.1E185
+60hr8 pm February 4415.5S110.5E200
+72hr8 am February 5415.6S108.7E220

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