MEDIUM - 阿拉弗拉海33U(93P) - 7.8S 136.3E

理可的呆萌呆毛

93P INVEST 250507 1800 8.9S 141.5E SHEM 15 1006

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ABPW10 PGTW 080200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080200Z-080600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S
141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM NORTH OF WEIPA, QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION STARTING TO ORGANIZE. A 072336Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING, PRIMARILY OVER
WATER, WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE POSITION IS BASED
ON THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 93P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ITS
POSITION ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD FLOW COULD FAVOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD,
THEN REMAIN NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF WEIPA, QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD, THEN REMAIN NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ECMWF及GFS 00Z均支持一定程度发展

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Forecast description
Tropical Low 33U
Tropical low developing in northern Arafura Sea.

• Tropical low 33U is expected to form in the northern Arafura Sea, near the coast of West Papua, this weekend.
  

• There is a Low likelihood that 33U strengthens into a tropical cyclone on Sunday or Monday before it weakens again by the middle of next week.
  

• 33U is expected to remain north of the Northern Territory and not directly impact the Top End coast.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:41 am UTC

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Tropical Low 33U

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红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z继续支持一定程度发展

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稍早前ASCAT风场扫描显示有成片30kt风旗

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NRL显示提前发出18Z报文，风速升至25kt

93P INVEST 250508 0000 8.7S 141.4E SHEM 20 1006
93P INVEST 250508 0600 8.5S 140.6E SHEM 20 1006
93P INVEST 250508 1200 8.2S 139.8E SHEM 20 1006
93P INVEST 250508 1800 7.9S 139.0E SHEM 25 1006

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GFS 12Z继续支持一定程度发展

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ECMWF 12Z亦继续支持一定程度发展