LOW - 瓦努阿图东南95P - 19.7S 171.8E

1007圆规

95P INVEST 250510 1200 19.5S 171.0E SHEM 15 0

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE, WARM (2829C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID CLIMATE
ARE CURRENTLY HELPING 93P WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9S
156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA,SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL
101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST
WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION
94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S
171E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50
KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT
WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST
EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED
WIND FIELD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) AS A LOW. ////
NNNN

理可的呆萌呆毛

隔壁可憐的93P都能升TS了
老J理都不理
反而閒情逸致的走來編了個南太SS

你滿腦子只想到自己呢.jpg

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

Leonardo

ABPW10 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102230Z-110600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH
OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A
WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU
24.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230)
FOR FURTH DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF B () FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING
VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A
101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST EASTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW. SEE REF C () FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 176.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
NORTH OF NADA, FIJI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING
VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD
AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天下午ASCAT风场扫描