MEDIUM - 印度以西AS 01(93A) - 16.8N 73.3E

yhh

93A INVEST 250520 0600 13.9N 74.6E IO 15 1005
93A INVEST 250520 0600 14.1N 74.2E IO 25 1005

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 00Z均支持发展

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午前后ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

IMD今天下午报文表示5月21日阿拉伯海中东部可能形成高空气旋环流，5月22日可能形成低压区，此后可能进一步加强

An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast
around 21st May. Under its influence, a Low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region
around 22nd May. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwards and intensify further.
Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over
eastcentral & southeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-Goa-Karnataka-Kerala coasts &
Lakshadweep Islands area. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense
convection lay over southwest Arabian Sea, Maldives & Comorin area.

nuggets

AIFS近两报不断西调 发展概率越来越大

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集，多数成员继续支持发展

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-
211800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N
73.9E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201636Z METOP-B ASCAT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW WEAK TURNING WITH 20-25KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND A POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (10-15KT) VWS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
AND WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. GFS INDICATES TC FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
96HRS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC及SSD 00Z均分析T1.0

TPIO10 PGTW 202354
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (WEST OF INDIA)
B. 20/2330Z
C. 16.10N
D. 72.71E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

TXIO22 KNES 210122
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93A)
B.  20/2330Z
C.  16.0N
D.  71.0E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...POST ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM YIELDED GREATER THAN 2/10
BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE. DT=1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER