墨西哥以南潜在热带气旋04E - NHC:90%

ygsj24

93E INVEST 250611 1200 9.2N 96.5W EPAC 20 1010

---

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Corrected spelling in Active Systems.

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme, located in the eastern Pacific basin.

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

591
ABPZ20 KNHC 112314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form late this week or this
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 120000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 96.6W TO 12.2N 100.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
97.0W, APPROXIMATELY 484 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A
120001Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST
93E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
93E WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130000Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form late this week or this
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

ygsj24

098
ABPZ20 KNHC 121726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next day or so while it moves
generally west-northwestward. Interests along the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

ygsj24

661
WTPZ44 KNHC 122044
TCDEP4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located south of Mexico, that the National Hurricane Center has been
monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization.
While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images
near the northeast edge of ongoing convection, the low-level
circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is
expected to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, and it is
possible that it will bring tropical storm conditions to land areas
within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane
Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this
disturbance.

The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is
west-northwestward at about 6 kt. A northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days as
the system moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, being
steered by a mid-level ridge. Model guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the overall track evolution, although minor track
shifts may cause greater impacts to the coast of Mexico. The NHC
forecast lies near the simple consensus aids. Since the disturbance
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the
track forecast uncertainty is typically larger in these situations,
and future track adjustments may be required.

The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop
overnight or tomorrow. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with
warm sea surface temperatures and abundant moisture. However, the
system will be dealing with some easterly to northeasterly wind
shear. The NHC forecast shows steady strengthening over the next few
days, although there are some guidance aids such as HCCA and the
hurricane regional models that lie above the current NHC forecast.
Given some uncertainty in how quickly the system consolidates and
the limiting wind shear, the NHC forecast lies near the simple
intensity consensus aids. Beyond day 4, environmental conditions
will become hostile which should lead to weakening, and the system
should struggle to produce convection moving into cooler SSTs and a
more stable air mass. The current NHC forecast has the system
becoming a remnant low at that time, and calls for dissipation by
day 5.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for portions of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 11.3N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H  13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly