佛罗里达州近海92L - 29.5N 80.0W - NHC:60%

1007圆规

AL, 92, 2025070400,   , BEST,   0, 295N,  800W,  25, 1013, DB

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1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida
Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form in this region over the weekend while the
system drifts northward or northeastward.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

ygsj24

448
ABNT20 KNHC 040504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend
if the low remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward.  This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.  
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday.  In addition, An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

yhh

WTNT21 KNGU 041600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.7N 79.2W TO 33.6N 79.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 30.7N 79.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE TODAY OR ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWARD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 051600Z.//

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles
off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with
an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and
thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the
center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could
form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally
north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect
should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven