小笠原群岛西南热带低压06W - 逐渐北上，或将影响日本关东地区 - JMA:GW

yhh

实时云图

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编扰资讯
93W INVEST 250710 0000 20.8N 141.2E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 250710 0000 20.7N 141.8E WPAC 20 1006

9916-Bart

此系统好像就是把92W拉到东边的系统

pocketbox

As of 8:00 AM today, 10 July 2025, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 07c) still being monitored INSIDE  the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a LOW potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Another Low Pressure Area (07d) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a MEDIUM potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA), a remnant of Tropical Depression {DANAS}, still being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has UNLIKELY to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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JTWC LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6N
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE EAST. A
092329Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST
WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION
93W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS
BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Enceladus

GFS 1000Z Main-run(INVEST 93W)
▸ Range: +96Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximum Expected Intensity: 40KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

Enceladus

ASCAT B UHR 23Z
扫到25KT

Enceladus

JMA: +48h LPA

Enceladus

As of 2:00 PM today, 10 July 2025, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 07c) still being monitored OUTSIDE  the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a MEDIUM potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Another Low Pressure Area (07d) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a HIGH potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA), a remnant of Tropical Depression {DANAS}, still being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has UNLIKELY to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Enceladus

GFS 1006Z Main-run(INVEST 93W)
▸ Range: +96Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximum Expected Intensity: 35KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

Enceladus

TPPN12 PGTW 101203
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (S OF IWO TO)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 23.10N
D. 141.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.0 PT AGREES WITH MET. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

BRYANT