坎佩切湾98L - 21.7N 93.7W - NHC:40%

理可的呆萌呆毛

98L INVEST 250813 1800 18.4N 89.9W ATL 20 1012

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1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no
significant increase in organization. Some development of this
system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf
beginning on Thursday while it moves to the northwest at 10 to 15
mph. The system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico
by late Friday, which should diminish its chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

9916-Bart

貌似不太支持

ygsj24

669
ABNT20 KNHC 132344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
A broad low pressure area has formed from a tropical wave over the
Yucatan Peninsula with disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity.  This low is forecast to move west-northwestward across
the southwestern Gulf overnight where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development.  The system is
forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by late Friday,
ending its chances of formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

416
ABNT20 KNHC 141738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located east of the Leeward Islands.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development.  A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142353
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Recent geostationary and microwave satellite imagery indicates that
shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization with a small area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Gulf. An earlier Air Force reconnaissance mission found
that the system lacks a well-defined low-level circulation. The low
is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the
western Gulf during the next day or so, and environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for further development. A tropical
depression could form before this system moves inland over
northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days.
Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Friday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

1. Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted in association with a
disturbance located about 75 miles off the coast of northeastern
Mexico or southern Texas coastline.  The system could become a
short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this
afternoon or evening.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151717
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Western Gulf (AL98):
Satellite and coastal Doppler radar data indicate the center of the
disturbance has moved inland near the mouth of the Rio Grande.  
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in the past few hours and
additional development is no longer expected.  Lingering showers and
thunderstorms could still produce locally heavy rainfall along
portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through the day.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

2025 - 145 - ALA8
持续时长：66 小时
最大风速：25 节
最低气压：1011 百帕
ACE：0

时刻（UTC）	所在纬度	所在经度	风速（节）	气压（百帕）	强度等级
2025/08/13 00:00	16.4N	85.7W	20	1013	DB
2025/08/13 06:00	17.3N	87.3W	20	1013	DB
2025/08/13 12:00	17.9N	88.9W	20	1012	DB
2025/08/13 18:00	18.3N	89.8W	20	1012	DB
2025/08/14 00:00	18.8N	90.5W	20	1011	DB
2025/08/14 06:00	19.5N	91.4W	20	1011	DB
2025/08/14 12:00	20.4N	92.5W	20	1011	DB
2025/08/14 18:00	21.7N	93.8W	25	1011	DB
2025/08/15 00:00	22.7N	95.1W	25	1011	DB
2025/08/15 06:00	23.7N	96.2W	25	1011	DB
2025/08/15 12:00	25.0N	96.8W	25	1011	DB
2025/08/15 18:00	26.4N	97.6W	25	1013	DB