TCFA - 巴士海峡以东92W - 21.6N 127.1E - 北上趋向东海 - JMA:TD

1007圆规

92W INVEST 250816 1200 19.4N 125.3E WPAC 15 0

A.lkk

8.16 12Z ECMWF Ensemble  強度分歧巨大，但大多支持維持較低強度進入東海

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 170000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170000Z-170600ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N
125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF KADENA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 92W IS STARTING TO
FORM WITHIN THE TROUGHING THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE LUZON STRAIT.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS)
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE MIXED
REGARDING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR 92W. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE ECENS
MODEL BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1. B. (1).//
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pocketbox

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3N 126.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 170419Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC),
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION
IS FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC IN THE CONVERGENT
FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROF AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
TUTT-CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTHEAST OF 92W, WHICH IS
IMPARTING NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER 92W AND DRAWING IN DRY MID-LEVEL
ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR
THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS) AND DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH, OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30
C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL VERY SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AND ONLY MINIMALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, HINDERED BY PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND MODERATE SHEAR MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

wcy

pocketbox 发表于 2025-8-17 14:08
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3N 126.5E IS NOW LOCATED  ...

可以改標題了

pocketbox

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 21N 127E NORTH SLOWLY.

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.2N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED
MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171235Z
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FORMATIVE LLCC TO THE WEST OF AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ISOLATED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT-
CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTH OF 92W, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
AND AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT ONLY OFFSET BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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