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波多黎各东北90L - 20.0N 59.6W - NHC:80%

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2359

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总版主-南亚高压

喵喵喵

积分
2359
发表于 2025-8-21 22:42 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2025-8-23 14:12 编辑

AL, 90, 2025082112,   , BEST,   0, 171N,  555W,  25, 1011, DB






1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 90L

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绫罗飘起遮住日落西,奏一回断肠的古曲

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世纪风王

积分
45917
发表于 2025-8-22 04:45 | 显示全部楼层
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
changed little in organization since earlier today.  Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression
could form.  In a couple of days, environmental conditions are
expected to
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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121

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世纪风王

积分
45917
发表于 2025-8-22 07:20 | 显示全部楼层
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized this evening. However, earlier
satellite-derived surface wind data showed that the system does not
have a well-defined center.  Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has moved into a drier environment and is currently producing
occasional showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive
for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



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世纪风王

积分
45917
发表于 2025-8-22 13:15 | 显示全部楼层
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220510
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and
Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
remain well organized. This system could become a tropical
depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation
center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive
environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly
more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next
week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
is moving through a dry environment and only producing occasional
showers. Upper-level winds appear unfavorable, and development
chances are decreasing. The weak low is likely to dissipate over the
next day or so as it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen



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1

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203

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399

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热带低压

积分
399
发表于 2025-8-22 13:46 | 显示全部楼层
1

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相信的心是你的魔法
SMCA小破站:www.smca.fun
喜欢制作好看的图片,如果能得到你的喜欢就很开心啦

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世纪风王

积分
45917
发表于 2025-8-22 19:50 | 显示全部楼层
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight.  While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday.  The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it
drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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121

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世纪风王

积分
45917
发表于 2025-8-23 20:00 | 显示全部楼层
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed
about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization.  A
tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with
further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while
the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic.  An Air
Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low
this afternoon.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of
this system as watches could be still required later today.  For
additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward
Islands.  Some development of this system could occur during the
next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20
mph.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on
Sunday and Monday.  By the middle of next week, conditions over the
central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake



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论坛版主-副热带高压

明天见,是最伟大的预言

积分
39435
发表于 2025-8-23 21:35 | 显示全部楼层


WTNT21 KNGU 231300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (90L)//
REF/A/FLTWEACEN NORFOLK VA/231300Z AUG 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 231300)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 62.0W TO 29.6N 62.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N 62.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
2.SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
ABOUT 434NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA, AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM LIKELY ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 241300Z.
//

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生命因何而沉睡,因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来
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